Last Friday, in a letter sent to the European Commission, the European airports association Aci Europe put it in black and white that there is no more time to waste on kerosene supplies: “If transit through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume in a significant and stable way within the next three weeks, the systemic shortage of jet fuel is destined to become a reality for the EU”. Not just price increases, though. Because the crisis in the Middle East could also lead to advantages for those who book a trip to reach certain destinations.
A low cost trip in May or June
Any examples? A flight from Rome to the Maldives for 250 euros. The same for the Seychelles, if you plan your trip for May or June. Flight prices for some foreign summer destinations are becoming more accessible, thanks to the uncertainty of 2026 marked by the fuel crisis, which is also having repercussions on the air transport sector. The Assoutenti association monitored airfares for some tourist destinations in the Indian Ocean and Asia, showing “the other side of the coin of the crisis in the Middle East”. However, without hiding the risk of a sharp increase in prices for destinations which, instead, are closer and more common for Italians.
Summer bookings to foreign destinations, as confirmed by tourism sector operators, are paying the price for the ongoing crisis. Italians, explains Assoutenti, “prefer to wait before booking a flight or holiday, or they opt for national or closer destinations, considered safer”. This is also due to the doubts that have characterized the air transport sector in recent weeks, with the risk of upcoming cuts to connections.
The explanation
Faced with many planes remaining empty, in the absence of demand, “the algorithms that regulate airline fares are forced to lower prices”, explained the president of Assoutenti, Gabriele Melluso. “Added to this is the marketing strategy adopted by some carriers in the Gulf, which in recent days, in order not to fly at a loss, have launched special discounts on some routes, to encourage citizens to leave”.
That’s why a one-way trip to Hong Kong can cost starting from 278 euros, 286 euros for Malaysia and 300 euros for Singapore. Around 370 euros, again between May and June, to fly to Japan or the Philippines. You can reach Thailand with just 290 euros, the cost for Vietnam is slightly higher, 325 euros.
And again, again in May, one-way flights to Sharm el-Sheikh from Milan, Rome and Naples start from 38 euros and fares to Marsa Alam from 41 euros. As for Asia, a one-way trip to China costs starting from 234 euros. Looking to the west, however, in May a one-way flight to the United States with a stopover starts from 222 euros, while a trip to Mexico starts from 330 euros. Fares are also lowered for going to Africa, with flights with long layovers to South Africa starting from 264 euros in May and to Kenya from 219.
Ticket prices in August
Assoutenti’s research examines the airfares charged by companies at the beginning of March to fly in the month of August, comparing them with those today: it thus turns out that to go from Milan to the Maldives, leaving on August 9th and returning on the 16th, if in the first days of March you needed around 1,470 euros, now 1,056 euros are enough, with a drop in the ticket price of -28%. From Rome to Cape Verde, on the same dates, spending drops in one month from 1,104 to 849 euros, marking a drop of 23%. The flight from Rome to Zanzibar and from Milan to the Seychelles costs 18% less than the prices at the beginning of March, as does going to Sharm el-Sheikh in the central week of August.
A price which in some cases, Assoutenti always points out, is lower than the flights booked during the last Easter holidays to travel from northern Italy to Sicily and Sardinia.
Rises for Greece and Spain
However, if “for some routes the costs of flights drop – highlights Melluso -, the concrete risk is that in the coming weeks, also due to the increases in jet fuel prices, airfares for closer and typically summer destinations such as Greece or Spain will undergo an increase”.
Price fluctuations which, as mentioned, are due to the uncertainty resulting from the conflict in the Middle East. The letter from Aci Europe – revealed by the Financial Times – paints a gloomy picture, where summer holidays and flight bookings risk ending up in chaos. Moreover, the alarm from European airports did not arrive suddenly. Only last April 3 did EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen focus on the risk of fuel rationing. And to this we must add one fact: the truce in the war in Iran has produced minimal effects on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, which in fact still remains at a standstill.
Now “aircraft fuel reserves are running out, while the impact of military activities on demand is further putting a strain on supplies,” the European Airports Association wrote in the letter addressed to Jorgensen and Transport Commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas.
Europe, explains the letter, risks being involved in a perfect storm: the approach of the high summer season, “when air transport supports the entire tourism ecosystem on which many economies depend”, has in fact further accentuated the “concerns” of the airport sector. “There is currently no EU-wide mapping and monitoring of aviation fuel production and availability. There is a need for proactive monitoring and intervention by the EU,” added ACI Europe.