The truce was supposed to pave the way for peace, but sixty days later the Middle East instead seems to be approaching a new phase of war. Donald Trump has threatened to bomb Oman, a historic ally of the United States in the Gulf and above all one of the main mediators between Washington and Tehran. Almost simultaneously a new ship was hit in the Strait of Hormuz and on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula the Houthis claimed responsibility for an attack on Saudi military units in the Red Sea. Only yesterday Tehran, through the mouth of General Hatami – commander of the Iranian army – announced a 30 thousand dollar bounty on US soldiers.
Trump threatens Oman
The memorandum signed on June 17 between the United States and Iran provided a 60-day window to reach a broader agreement on Iran’s nuclear program and American sanctions. The agreement also proclaimed the cessation of military operations, but it quickly deteriorated especially due to the clash over control of the Strait of Hormuz. On August 17, the deadline expired without a definitive agreement.
What further increased tension were the words spoken by Trump during an interview with the journalist from Fox NewsTrey Yingst. “If Oman gets in the way, we will bomb it,” the American president said, in actually even more explicit terms, as reported by the US broadcaster. The target of the threat is particularly significant. Oman does not fight the United States and has been a strategic partner of Washington for decades. Muscat has also repeatedly played the role of intermediary in relations with Iran.
The reason for the clash is once again the control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman are negotiating a possible mechanism to regulate the passage of ships through the strait, whose waters are shared by the two countries. Tehran claims that the June memorandum recognizes its right to manage maritime traffic; Washington rejects this interpretation. Iran claims that negotiations with Muscat are close to an agreement.
Trump simultaneously raised the pressure on Iran, asking Tehran to surrender, but without setting a new deadline for the end of the war. When asked about the possible extension of the June memorandum, he responded in the negative.
Another ship hit in the Strait of Hormuz
Just as diplomacy runs aground, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reports that a ship leaving the Strait of Hormuz was hit by an “unidentified projectile”. The impact damaged the engine room and caused one casualty among the crew members.
Meanwhile, only a few ships pass through the Strait per day, compared to more than 130 daily passages before the war.
Hormuz Traffic Falls, Red Sea Resilient
Maritime traffic diverged across two critical chokepoints last week. Strait of Hormuz crossings fell 19.5% to 95 from 118, with daily traffic declining from a peak of 19 on 11 August to just three on 16 August. Of the total, 51 crossings… pic.twitter.com/gMyMSA8N7I
— MarineTraffic (@MarineTraffic) August 17, 2026
It’s one reason the crisis continues to have consequences far beyond the Middle East. Before the conflict, about a fifth of the oil and liquefied natural gas traded worldwide passed through the strait. Brent, which reached a peak of 126 dollars a barrel during the war, closed on Monday 17 August at 90.87 dollars.
| Month 2026 | Brent oil $/barrel | Petrol Italy €/litre | Gas TTF €/MWh |
| January | 66.60 | 1,636 | 35.00 |
| February | 70.89 | 1,647 | 35.00 |
| March | 103.13 | 1,749 | 52.87 |
| April | 117.29 | 1,760 | 45.21 |
| May | 107.14 | 1,906 | 47.32 |
| June | 85.40 | 1,886 | 44.94 |
| July | 83.76 | 1,886 | 53.48 |
| August* | 89.33 | 1,992 | 58.35 |
Iran: “We are ready to go on the offensive”
Equally harsh signals are coming from Tehran. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that if the United States does not fully implement the June agreement within a few weeks, Iran could adopt a “fully offensive” military posture and intensify operations in the Strait of Hormuz and the rest of the region.
The official Iranian version is that the 60-day deadline has now lost its meaning. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei claims that Washington violated the memorandum a few weeks after its signature, even preventing the start of the planned negotiations.
Yet a communication channel still seems to exist. Jared Kushner, Trump’s envoy and son-in-law, explained to Fox News that contacts between the US government and various sectors of Iranian power are particularly intense today. Second ReutersWashington would also have opened an indirect channel towards the leaders of the Guardians of the Revolution.
It is the paradox of the current phase: Washington and Tehran continue to talk to each other while simultaneously preparing the possibility of a new military escalation.
Houthis attack Saudis in the Red Sea
The risk is that the war will spread further south too. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militia says it attacked a Saudi naval vessel and four escort vessels with ballistic missiles in the Red Sea off Mokha.
The new offensive comes after the resumption of hostilities in Yemen and after the Houthis stepped up attacks against ships and infrastructure along the Red Sea. The United Nations has warned that the country faces the gravest risk of returning to full-scale war since the 2022 truce.
The strategic consequence would be enormous: while Hormuz remains heavily compromised, a further escalation in Yemen would also put pressure on the Bab el-Mandeb, the southern gateway to the Red Sea and one of the main alternative routes for global energy and trade traffic.
Drones over Iraqi Kurdistan
Tension also affects Iraq. Two drones targeted the office of Iraqi Kurdistan Prime Minister Masrour Barzani and the home of the head of regional intelligence. Kurdish authorities claim that the aircraft departed from Iranian territory.
The risk that the different fronts of the war will once again merge into a single regional conflict.