The holidays are (almost) over and when they start again, before the schools open, everyone’s question is what the political leaders’ agenda is. A question that however takes us off-axis. The most appropriate one is in fact another: what is on the Italians’ agenda? Is it possible to outline some basic guidelines, which perhaps go beyond the most obvious topics such as money, bills, fuel? To do this, DossierToday.it turned to those who know about popular moods, because probing them is their job: Livio Gigliuto, president of the Piepoli Institute (photo below), one of the most important and reliable Italian polling companies.
Doctor Gigliuto, what is cooking in the minds of Italians when activity resumes and a year before the elections?
“A lot has been talked about in recent weeks, from the electoral law, to the squabbles in the center-left for the primaries and those in the center-right for Vannacciis not at the top of the concerns of a large part of the population. These are important things, followed by a piece of public opinion, but that’s not what the Italians are asking for.”
And what is it that interests people?
“There are two themes. One quite obvious, namely economic concerns, as almost always happens, and the other newer, or at least in a new form.”
The economic aspect is classic.
“Even in the last survey we did, after August 15th, it is at the top of the list of concerns, across the board, both on the left and on the right. Bills, fuel, food spending.”
Let’s get to the topic that you defined as less obvious.
“I’m talking about safety.”
But this is nothing new either.
“The new thing is that in 2022 it was the fifth or sixth issue in the ranking of concerns, now it is the second. Four years ago it did not represent a reason to go and vote or not to vote for certain parties, and now it does”.
How are the parties approaching these issues?
“The center-right tries to link these two issues, economy and security. That is: we have an economic difficulty also linked to international problems, but the difficulties we encounter with security and immigration prevent us from really resolving everything. The center-right has already tried on the occasion of the referendum on the judiciary to link a topical issue to the issue of immigration and security. It didn’t go very well, but perhaps on the economic issue it is easy to make a few more connections.”
And the centre-left?
“We’ll see how they will approach it. They are still behind in the program. On the economic front they have some coverage, and they will certainly have to focus on the minimum wage, while on the security front the situation is more fluid. However, they will have to do so, also because the security issue is felt by voters on the right but also on the left. And this is further news.”
Didn’t this happen before?
“To a lesser extent. Security is well felt for example by 5 Star voters, and voters in the North and young voters in particular tell us this, which is a bit of a change in public opinion in recent years. Previously the issue of security was for people a few years older, who were afraid to walk the streets, now it has changed shape. The issue of security is a topic that is very suitable for the younger segment”.
This is because the things that scare us have changed.
“Precisely. The baby gangs, the so-called Maranza, the acts of petty crime in the area are scary. And these things also create discomfort for young people who go out in the evening, who go around in the big cities.”
So the centre-right’s insistence on security can be explained in this way.
“Obviously, however, all this intersects with the fact that I have been in government for four years. So people might think: why haven’t you resolved it? This could be the centre-left’s counter-move. As long as a fundamental issue is resolved.”
Which?
“That of giving a clear answer, as least idle as possible. That is, clearly stating whether security is a problem or not, without denying it.”
In your most recent polls, how is Futuro Nazionale doing?
“I no longer find Vannacci’s growth particularly strong (photo above). The rise of recent weeks seems to have stopped a bit. For us now it is around six and a half”.
It’s not a little.
“No, but more than the numerical data, I would monitor Vannacci’s political weight, because on some issues, such as security, he can put the center-right coalition into crisis with criticism from within, which those voters could listen to”.
Another topic that will polarize the election campaign is that of weapons and Ukraine. How do popular moods move?
“The Italians have never been in the majority for sending weapons. Always clearly pro-Ukrainian, between the two we know very well who is right and who is wrong, but if we have to lend a hand militarily then we withdraw. Economic aid is welcome, but weapons less so.”
And in the Zelensky-Putin derby?
“At the beginning of the conflict, trust in the Ukrainian president was enormous.”
He looked like Churchill to us.
“Almost. And on the other side there was Putin, who was clearly the enemy, the one who had made a mistake. He had the lowest levels of trust that can be recorded in a survey, like 8-9%, levels reached for example by Netanyahu this year.”
Now?
“The situation has changed. Now I have very different data, confidence in Zelensky it is at 32%, higher than Putin’s which is at 15%, and the feeling is that the more time passes, the more Italians think that Zelensky too has his faults, and doubts spread.”
Is it a cross-party attitude?
“I would say that there is a slightly more pro-Zelensky sentiment in the centre-left, but not too much. Let’s say that Vannacci and Salvini on one side and the 5 Stars on the other are more sensitive towards Russia. But we knew this.”
Lastly, let’s talk about primaries in the center-left. What sensation do you register?
“I have done several surveys on this matter, obviously thinking about the scenarios that exist at the moment, those of a two-way fight Count–Schlein” (center, in the photo above).
What do you record?
“I have always found Conte ahead of Schlein in all the polls. We then did an experiment testing a scenario in which big names from the other formations are also candidates, therefore Fratoianni, Bonelli, Renzi”.
The result?
“It’s always a head-to-head between Conte and Schlein, in which Conte is stronger at the moment.”
The reason?
“Conte would have all the votes of his people but he also has many votes from the Democratic Party, around a quarter of the Dem electorate, while Schlein would only have half the votes of the Democratic Party”.
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