In 2027, pensions will rise again due to the revaluation of social security payments in line with inflation. The so-called equalization is based on the Istat index of consumer prices for families of workers and employees (FOI), net of manufactured tobacco. The interministerial decree that sets the provisional revaluation percentage is issued in November by the Ministry of Economy and verified at the beginning of the year, when Istat publishes the definitive data on the 12-month average. Any differences are then recovered with an adjustment.
The equalization mechanism and percentages
Although there are no definitive numbers yet, it is already possible to make some simulations on the increases arriving in January, while taking the figures with great caution. According to the most recent estimates, the revaluation of pensions from 1 January 2027 should be around 2.9%, in line with the inflation acquired for 2026 recorded by Istat. However, it is better to clarify this immediately, this is a percentage that could change. What is certain is that this year’s figure promises to be far higher than the 1.4% recorded in 2025. The increases in social security checks will therefore be more substantial.
Net of any last-minute changes (which however cannot be ruled out), the legislation in force provides for three different bands of increases:
- 100% for checks up to 4 times the minimum treatment;
- 90% for those between 4 and 5 times the minimum;
- 75% for higher amounts;
How much the checks could increase: the provisional estimates
Based on estimated inflation, pensions up to 2,447.40 euros gross per month would therefore rise by 2.9%. For higher amounts the increase is calculated in increments: the portion between 2,447.40 and 3,059.25 euros would be revalued by 2.61%, while the portion above 3,059.25 euros would grow by 2.175%. We ran a simulation to understand how the checks could change.
| Gross monthly pension 2026 | Estimated monthly increase | Gross pension 2027 |
| €800 | +€23.20 | €823.20 |
| €1,000 | +€29.00 | €1,029.00 |
| €1,200 | +€34.80 | €1,234.80 |
| €1,500 | +€43.50 | €1,543.50 |
| €2,000 | +€58.00 | €2,058.00 |
| €2,500 | +€72.35 | €2,572.35 |
| €3,000 | +€85.40 | €3,085.40 |
| €3,500 | +€96.53 | €3,596.53 |
The figures are gross. The net increase in the envelope will therefore necessarily be lower due to the Irpef and additional taxes, with the exception of those pensioners who fall within the no-tax area.
The hypothesis of reviewing the rules
The estimates, however we have repeatedly emphasized, are not definitive, but subject to variations. In any case they can give an idea of the figures at stake. Even changes in progress cannot be ruled out. Il Sole 24 Ore highlights that as a result of the equalization, social security spending will leap forward with an increase of almost 15 billion for 2027. The government could decide to intervene. The hypothesis on the table is to review the indexation of medium-high pensions, with a possible return to the 2023-2024 mechanism, less favorable for higher allowances.