The price of diesel is now firmly above two euros per litre, with the excise duty discount set to expire in less than a week, on August 25th. With the crisis in the Middle East not seeming to be resolved, there is a risk that tariffs will rise further. Michele Marsiglia, president of FederPetroli Italia, raised the alarm: “Reaching 3 euros per liter for diesel in the first autumn months is not difficult”.
The crisis in the Middle East
A scenario that is obviously not immediate, but which could materialize within a short time if the situation in the Strait of Hormuz continues to worsen in the absence of a real de-escalation. Geopolitical tension has continued to grow: Brent remains at very high levels, reaching 92-93 dollars per barrel, while gas travels at 63 euros/MWh.
The gas “problem”.
According to the president of FederPetroli, gas itself could represent one of the major concerns for Italy: “What is most worrying, despite the blockade of the Strait, at least for Italian families and companies, is that in the months of October and November these famous 63 euros could be felt heavily on energy costs.” “When the situation is this – he added – even fuel prices are affected: already from this morning the national averages have grown by several cents”. The problem is particularly evident on diesel, where increases are rapidly eroding the effect of the measures introduced by the government. The reference is to the discount on excise duties, equal to 17 cents per liter for diesel and valid until 25 August: “It is a discount that can certainly help, but diesel reached 2.60-2.68 euros already weeks ago”. In fact, the tax benefit therefore risks being absorbed by the price increases of the product.
Diesel at 3 euros per litre
The question then is how much diesel might cost in September and in the following months. Marseille’s response is clear: “At the moment there is no tariff panic, and fortunately we are still below 3 euros per litre, but in the absence of de-escalation it is a threshold that is possible within a few months”. Italy has increased purchases from alternative sources, including the United States, but this strategy could also face limits if the crisis widens. Meanwhile, some room for intervention could come from Brussels. Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti has asked the European Union for greater flexibility on the energy front. “It may be that we can recover a few cents – explained Marseille – but we will have to wait”.
The discount that expires
Then there remains the problem of the discount on excise duties: “From 25 August even this minimal discount will disappear. This will translate into further pressure on the final price of diesel just as international prices remain high”.
Updated prices
The Ministry of Business and Made in Italy, based on the latest data collected by the Mimit Observatory on fuel prices, has announced the prices updated to today, Wednesday 19 August 2026. The average price of fuel in ‘self service’ mode along the national road network is equal to 1.997 euros/l for petrol and 2.107 euros/l for diesel. On the motorway network, however, the average self-service price is 2.074 euros/l for petrol and 2.178 euros/l for diesel.