The promise of Trump To put an end to the hostilities between Russians and Ukraine, it also represented one of the nodal points of the recent election campaign that brought it back to the leadership of the country.
Not surprisingly, the re -elected president, to keep faith with his words, restore and reconquer the authority of United States On the global chessboard, blurred by the disastrous biden management, since he settled he gave birth to an incessant diplomatic action by reporting relations with Russia to an optimal level.
Probably the relationships with Putin have never been interrupted, not even during the Biden presidency, and this is the reason why the speed with which you are coming to agreements for a ceased the definitive fire raises surprise and skepticism, especially listening to the now isolated bell of one Zelensky which has only part of the European Union only.
Trump, Putin and Brics
The way you will come to peace, the agreements that Trump intends to stipulate mainly with Putin, “excluding” Born, EU and the same Ukrainerepresent the antechamber of a new global reorganization that will make the end of the conflict “an exchange weapon” that will use it to normalize relations with China (and also settle the thorny Taiwan question), show the muscles to the Brics e recover a slice of the Russian market After the probable elimination of sanctions.
Putin, on the other hand, has all the interest in “falling to the pacts with Trump” because he knows he is “the referee or the balance needle” necessary, paradoxically, to protect US interests thanks to its influence on XI Jinping and the exponents of the Brics countries including nations with a fundamental role in the Middle Eastern chessboard.
At the end, the clear intent of Trump to delegitimize what was put in place by BidenZelensky and the European Union, without first to make the diplomatic ways to avoid the conflict, considering that the triggering causes date back to 2010 not by the Russian hand but for real intrusions of the then Obama administration (of which Biden was deputy) in the Ukrainian events.
The pre-conclusion economic scenario
When the war broke out, exactly three years ago, the planet had just left the pandemic crisis and the European Union, totally dependent on imports in the field of raw materials and natural resources, he suffered a repercussions that has not yet been completely absorbed today Despite the PNRR, this precisely because of this second “event” that triggered the energy crisis as the primary cause of the inflationary surge.
Ergo, the penalties taxes to Russia and the destruction of the North Stream have further pushed the economies of the Old Continent in the abyss and put the main industrial systems and driving economies in crisis; At the same time, China tried to opt Taiwan (the first producer to the world of electronic devices and components) and made an inception of rare lands in every corner of the planet starting to launch the glove of challenge to the USA for artificial intelligence.
In this context, Russia, despite everything, has strengthened by bypassing sanctions with agreements to export gas and oil “rejected by the EU” in China, India And Pakistanmainly; but also in the same European Union through neutral nations at significantly higher prices; The Usa ditto as they have supplied Europe to replace the Russian resources passed away.
The possible post-war economic impact
To pay the highest price, after these three years of war, are undoubtedly Ukraine and the European Union whose institutional leaders, unfortunately blinded by the ideological and non -pragmatic approach, among other things supported by Biden to whom, wickedly, the management of the conflict has also been delegated despite the fact that it impacted territorially and economically on European countries, have caught a series of strategic errors to which there is no remedy.
Here then (small excursus) The rise of the right to Europeand of the Republicans in America, the result of the heavy crisis in which tens of millions of middle class families have sunk.
The winners who come out of this conflict are the powers that have placed the protection of their interests and non -ideologies or fake democracies as priority, that is, planned how not to lose ground and market slices.
The USA, thanks to the agreement on rare lands with Ukraine, will ensure the Big tech Constancy of imports of components and at the same time a “reverse relocation” by recalling companies with plants in China in the face of tax reliefs, therefore also an increase in employment.
Putin, for his part, having maintained the Russian GDP on high growth rhythms, and playing a fundamental role within the Brics, places Russia as “A new land of commercial conquest“By the West who will challenge China to recover the market shares abandoned to the outbreak of the conflict; Therefore also the tsar empire will benefit from massive investments and, with the probable cancellation of the sanctions, will also resume selling gases and oil to the EU by granting the USA.
Trump and defeated
Ukraine and European Union They will be at the window and totally dependent, the first from the US and Russian capital for the reconstruction that they will repay by losing control of their natural resources; And the EU, “isolated” also by the United States, and after having destroyed the automotive sector with relative induced, will be, despite himself, forced to negotiate the best commercial conditions with the American ally precisely through Meloni who will have to become balancer in order not to incur diplomatic accidents both on the one hand and on the other.
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