every model you go to, every forecast you find – Emilio Tomasini’s blog

23Set 24 Sahm rule: every model has its own prediction And to tell the whole truth about how the forecasts depending on the model change at every storm in front, a graph was published with …

Written by: Jack Williams

Published on: September 24, 2024

23Set 24

Sahm rule: every model has its own prediction

And to tell the whole truth about how the forecasts depending on the model change at every storm in front, a graph was published with the modification of the recession indicator Sahm Rule named after a nice economist from the FED (don’t ask me for the details because I don’t know them, I only remember the lady who invented the rule and I can tell you that it is certainly pleasant) and with the modification the response of the model is the opposite of that without modification (no recession with the modification while it indicates recession in the other). The modification consists in considering total unemployment instead of that of the prime – age.

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Jack Williams

Jack Williams established himself as the editor-in-chief of The Vermilion with rigorous journalistic traits and an incessant quest for truth. His career began as an investigative reporter, where he quickly gained a reputation for his in-depth research and insightful articles. Williams takes his role at The Vermilion very seriously. Since he became editor-in-chief, he has set an editorial line based on impartiality, factual accuracy, and context relevance; this has established The Vermilion as a reference for political, economic, and global news. Under his leadership, the media continues its mission of reporting news with accuracy and equanimity, giving a voice to those who are often overlooked by large-scale media. Jack dedicates himself to fulfilling this mandate with passion, rigour, and unwavering determination.