A nuclear war capable of causing global famine. Or artificial intelligence used to develop biological weapons. These are the two threats which, in the most extreme scenarios, could lead to the extinction of humanity by 2100. A report by the Commission of The Lancet, one of the world’s oldest and most influential scientific medical journals, on global threats to health in the 21st century, which examined the risks to the future of the world’s population.
This is not a prediction about the end of the world: experts consider the probability of these events to be low, but believe it is necessary to address them due to the severity of the possible consequences. And the message of the analysis is also another: for each of the 17 threats identified there are concrete possibilities for intervention.
The two threats to the survival of humanity
In the case of an atomic war, the consequences could go far beyond explosions and the destruction of cities. Particles released into the upper atmosphere could reduce sunlight reaching Earth, compromise crops and trigger a global famine. It would be this chain of events that would endanger the survival of the species.
The other scenario concerns the malicious use of artificial intelligence, including to create biological weapons. The risk described by the report is therefore linked to the possibility of using these technologies to cause damage on a very large scale.
2100 represents the horizon of the analysis, not a deadline: the Commission evaluates what could happen over the course of the century and how much the choices of governments could change the outcomes.
Not just wars and artificial intelligence: the other 15 risks
The list also includes dangers that are already present, which compromise the health of millions of people every year and which, cumulatively, can represent real risks. The other 15 threats are air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, child malnutrition, climate change, conventional wars, reductions in international health aid, high alcohol consumption, hypertension, income inequality, low levels of education, naturally occurring pandemics, obesity, mental health problems, smoking and poor ageing.
To compare such different phenomena, experts estimated the years of healthy life that could be lost due to disease, disability and premature death. The indicator used is called “DALY”: the figures reported in the study, therefore, do not indicate a number of victims.
Furthermore, threats do not act separately. They can feed on each other and exacerbate inequalities, making populations who have fewer resources to protect themselves more vulnerable.
The cost of climate change and aid cuts
The comparison between the scenarios shows how much political decisions can have an impact. According to the report, keeping global warming to around 1.8 degrees, rather than letting it reach 4.4 degrees, could avoid the loss of 1.89 billion years of healthy life.
Another risk concerns the reduction of international health aid, as large donor countries, including the United States and the United Kingdom, have announced funding cuts. The collapse or sharp reduction of these interventions could result in up to 1.5 billion years of healthy life lost by 2100. Almost 70 percent of the damage would fall on sub-Saharan Africa, a region already particularly affected by child malnutrition.
The weight of the different risks also changes based on the richness of the territories. In higher income areas, problems such as obesity and poor mental health especially emerge. In the poorest ones, social conditions such as low levels of education also have an impact.
The report, produced by 35 experts and scheduled for Sunday 11 October at the World Health Summit in Berlin, will be updated every year with new data and the assessment of any emerging threats.