A Russian attack on NATO could be closer than we think: a matter of “months, not years”. This is the warning launched by European intelligence officials and taken up by the Guardian. According to the prestigious newspaper, the risk is not that of a large-scale offensive like the one on Ukraine, but an attempt to test the Alliance.
NATO countries in the crosshairs
The warning comes after Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told Parliament that intelligence assessments suggest Russia could launch a drone or missile attack on NATO territory in the coming months, in a bid to demonstrate that “Article 5 is more theoretical than practical”.
French President Emmanuel Macron called Tusk’s warnings “well-founded and well-documented” and on Friday summoned party leaders and 2027 presidential candidates to Paris for an emergency meeting, during which they discussed – among other things – intelligence information relating to the growing threat posed by Russia.
Over the past week, the Guardian reports, three senior European intelligence officials have met in different locations to discuss their assessments of the potential threat from Moscow. According to Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Security Service (Bis), in addition to increased drone activity, the Kremlin’s plans could include a small-scale invasion of NATO territories bordering Russia. “It could be a limited incursion, false flag provocations or a massive influence campaign,” he said during an interview at the agency’s headquarters in Prague.
Intelligence sources in three Baltic countries bordering Russian territory were more cautious about the prospect of an invasion or other serious escalation. Moscow, whose finances are already under stress due to the conflict in Ukraine, could rely more on fear and uncertainty to destabilize the West without carrying out actual attacks.