“Rapid escalation of the conflict”: the embassies are on alert as Trump suspends the weekend and recalls the minister of war

The United States further raises the alert level in the Middle East. In a new communication to its citizens, the State Department warns that the clash between Saudi Arabia and the Iranian-backed Yemeni Houthis “has …

"Rapid escalation of the conflict": the embassies are on alert as Trump suspends the weekend and recalls the minister of war

The United States further raises the alert level in the Middle East. In a new communication to its citizens, the State Department warns that the clash between Saudi Arabia and the Iranian-backed Yemeni Houthis “has the potential to escalate rapidly.” Compared to the warnings released in previous weeks, Washington now also explicitly mentions attacks on civilian airports and invites Americans outside the region to “seriously reconsider” any travel to or through the Middle East.

The alert comes after the attempted missile attack on September 19 against Riyadh and after a series of raids and attacks against Saudi cities and energy infrastructure. There is not yet a general evacuation order, but the message signals the fear that the new front between Riyadh and the Houthis could further widen the regional conflict.

According to the American media, Trump is considering an intervention in the war alongside the Saudis: there are some attack options on Yemen on the table. In the last hours after the Houthis had attacked the airport of the capital Riyadh, the Saudi air force responded with bombings on the Yemeni capital Sana’a where an arms depot was destroyed.

The conflict over Bab el-Mandeb

The conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis has its roots in the Yemeni civil war: in 2014 the Zaidi Shiite movement, supported by Iran, conquered Sana’a and the following year Riyadh intervened militarily at the head of an Arab coalition to support the internationally recognized Yemeni government. After years of bombing and fighting, the 2022 truce had essentially frozen the front and drastically reduced cross-border attacks.

In September 2026, that truce effectively collapsed: the Houthis launched a vast offensive in western Yemen, conquering strategic territories along the Red Sea and towards Bab el-Mandeb, and resumed attacks with missiles and drones against Saudi cities, airports and energy infrastructure. Riyadh responded with new air raids on Yemen. The escalation is intertwined with the broader confrontation between Iran and the United States-Israel and reopens a front that had remained relatively frozen for almost four years.

The critical point is Bab el-Mandeb, the southern gate of the Red Sea and therefore of the Suez Canal: according to data cited by Defense Minister Guido Crosetto, around 40% of Italian trade passes through Suez, while around 7% of world oil production passes through the Yemeni strait.

Oil and gas

The effect of the escalation of the war in the Middle East is already visible and concerns oil and fuel. The Houthi attacks knocked out the Saudi East-West oil pipeline, which had become essential to circumvent difficulties in the Strait of Hormuz resulting from the war between the US-Israel and Iran, putting up to 4% of the world’s crude oil supply at risk and causing cancellations of cargoes bound for Europe.

Then there is gas: in 2025 around a third of the LNG imported by Italy came from Qatar. Qatari ships heading towards the Mediterranean must first cross Hormuz and then, normally, Bab el-Mandeb and Suez: having both straits under pressure at the same time makes European energy supplies more expensive and vulnerable.

The price of diesel no longer stands still: “In some distributors it is above 3 euros per litre”

This is why the Italian defense minister Crosetto announced that the Navy is preparing to do everything necessary to guarantee the transit of Italian ships.