The government is preparing to say goodbye to fuel discounts for everyone. After months of extensions and 2.7 billion euros of public money spent, the general cut in excise duties on diesel should stop at midnight on Thursday 17 September, giving way to a series of more selective aid intended for workers, the self-employed, pensioners and categories most exposed to high fuel prices.
The latest extension is already black and white. The decree law of 10 September maintained the excise duty on diesel fuel at 532.90 euros per thousand liters until 17 September. For just seven days the State has allocated 86 million euros, to which are added another 16 million linked to road transport interventions. Translated at the pump, the excise duty cut is worth around 14 cents per liter which, also considering VAT, becomes around 17 cents discount on the final price of diesel. On a 50 liter tank it means a saving of around 8.55 euros.
The problem is that this system costs a lot and does not distinguish between those who earn 1,200 euros a month and those who earn 10,000. And this is precisely the model that the government wants to retire.
How much is the petrol discount costing us?
Since March the government has intervened repeatedly to control prices following the international energy crisis. According to the latest reconstructions, approximately 2.6 billion euros have been committed between excise duty reductions and road transport support, only partially offset by the greater VAT revenue produced by the increase in prices. For the rest, spending cuts and tax advances were also used. But it is above all the latest extension that allows us to understand how much it costs to keep the tap open: 86 million in seven days is equivalent to over 12 million euros per day, approximately 369 million per month if consumption and rates remained unchanged.
If the current discount were extended without interruption from September 18th to December 31st, the bill would be in the order of 1.29 billion euros just for the cut in excise duty on diesel. It is a simulation, not a government forecast: consumption can change and the rate can be remodulated. But it conveys the dimensions of the choice well.
The new fuel bonus
Hence the idea, or rather the need, to abandon indiscriminate discounting and concentrate the same resources on a much smaller audience. One of the hypotheses under study is that of a fuel bonus for employees, possibly conveyed through the fringe benefits system. The idea would be roughly this: the employer recognizes the employee with a voucher or credit that can be used to refuel, and then recovers the cost for tax purposes according to the mechanism established by the decree.
However, the definitive mechanism has not yet been established: among the problems to be resolved is the possible advance of the sums by companies and the subsequent tax recovery. The League also asks to include the VAT numbers that use the car the most for work, from sales agents to other professional categories. Forza Italia, on the other hand, is pushing for pensioners not to be excluded, while there seems to be greater convergence among the majority on support for road transport.
There are also interventions on the table on local public transport, through discounts on season tickets or tickets, with a dual objective: helping families and reducing car use.
A 300 euro bonus: how much would it cost
This is where the numbers get interesting. Let’s suppose, purely by way of example, that the government decided to recognize a one-off fuel bonus of 300 euros.
With 600 million, 2 million people could be reached. With 900 million we would reach 3 million. With 1.2 billion to 4 million beneficiaries, while to reach 5 million 1.5 billion would be needed.
The comparison with excise duties is immediate. If maintaining the current discount on diesel until the end of the year costs around 1.29 billion, the same figure would theoretically allow us to distribute:
- 300 euros to approximately 4.3 million people;
- 200 euros to approximately 6.45 million people;
- 500 euros to approximately 2.58 million people.
They are The Vermilion simulations based on the official cost of the latest extension and do not represent the figures of the decree in preparation.
Then there is another way to read these numbers. A driver who fills up a 50-litre tank benefits from around 8.55 euros in discount. To obtain a 300 euro benefit through the current cut in excise duties, you would have to purchase approximately 1,750 liters of diesel, equivalent to 35 50-litre tanks. A 300 euro bonus concentrated on the lowest incomes would therefore be much more generous for the individual beneficiary than the generalized discount. The price to pay, however, would be the exclusion of millions of motorists.
Who risks being left out
And this is precisely where the political conflict is concentrated. In Italy in July there were approximately 19.1 million employed workers and 5.3 million self-employed workers. It is clear that it would not be possible to assign 300 or 500 euros to everyone without exploding costs: 300 euros to all employees alone would require over 5.7 billion.
A threshold will therefore necessarily be needed: income, ISEE or linked to the profession and the need to use the car to work. Even more complex would be to include pensioners indiscriminately. There are over 16 million beneficiaries of pension benefits in Italy: also in this case a universal bonus would be incompatible with the resources currently under discussion.
The real issue of the decree will therefore be entirely in the definition of the audience.
Because the 14 billion Europeans cannot be used
Finally, the problem of coverage hangs over the government. The new European flexibility for energy security can reach up to 0.3% of GDP for Italy each year and 0.6% cumulatively between 2026 and 2028. But Brussels has built this instrument to finance measures that structurally reduce dependence on fossil fuels: renewables, storage, heat pumps, building redevelopment, infrastructure for electric cars and industrial decarbonisation.
It is therefore difficult to get a discount on a full tank of diesel or a bonus intended directly for the purchase of fossil fuels.
And this is why the conflict over extra profits returns in the majority. The League wants to ask for an additional contribution from banks and large energy groups; Forza Italia instead rejects the idea of a new tax and prefers a contribution agreed with businesses. Tajani has already indicated the agreement reached with banks and insurance companies as a model.
The government therefore has less than a week to find the right solution. Because at midnight on September 17th the discount expires. And without a new intervention, those approximately 17 cents per liter on diesel will return directly to the price at the pump.