As written previously, while the Democratic Party is essentially all lined up behind it Kamala Harris the same does not happen in the republican camp. It’s true – we’ve known this since 2015, when Donald Trump declared his intentions – that the old Grand Old Party as then and in some parts today represented considered him and considers him a kind of foreign body (after all, he is a ‘maverick’), but certainly did almost nothing to gather the consensus of the 30 percent who still preferred Nikki Haley to him in the primaries. A part that the language used by the tycoon (certainly to galvanize his followers) has also distanced and which in fact believes that certain limits should not be crossed. This is the sword of Damocles that hangs over the head of the only American Head of State who thinks he can imitate Grover Cleveland by returning to exercise executive power after four years of opposition.
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That said:
1) How much does Donald Trump actually weigh in terms of popular votes?
In 2016 and 2020, his two previous candidacies, in the polls, Donald Trump was credited with a number of popular votes which later turned out to be decidedly lower than the actual number. Now, in the situation presented in the last few hours, from the findings made, the tycoon himself is on a par with his rival Kamala Harris. Three possibilities.
- The first: the pollsters have learned their lesson and place him, albeit in cohabitation, correctly in the lead.
- The second: in fact, in reaction, they ‘pumped’ him excessively and in truth he is behind.
- The third: even in this circumstance the underestimation remains and consequently wins clearly.
We will see.
2) “Too close to call!”
Taking into account the polls that show Trump and Harris practically on par, what is the most likely conclusion of the counting of ballots cast in polling stations before closing time and before that concerning early and postal voting which in some states will begin immediately afterwards? In short, will we have a result that has a real chance of being definitive? Will we even know how long we’ll have to wait?
The answer to the first questions is no, if he is confirmed in the seven Battlegrounds the very close head-to-head expected. The finishing order is so tight (I talk about it as it is done in gallop races in particular) that the sign saying “too close to call” had to be displayed. We will have a winner at the last minute – unless the findings regarding voting intentions are completely wrong – an indefinable time, even a few days.
3) A result similar to that of 2016 is possible
Well, looking at bookmakers, an almost precise repetition is possible. The most recurrent quota in fact considers Harris clearly (1.28 against 3.75) as a winner in the federal vote and a loser (2.40 against 1.61) in terms of delegates won. In this hypothesis, it should be underlined that for the fifth time since 1856 (first direct Democratic/Republican confrontation) the Democratic candidate would be defeated in this way, something that has never happened in reverse.
4) The time zone issue and the unofficial declaration of the result
Poll closing times differ in the 50 states because the US has different time zones from the East Coast on the Atlantic to Hawaii on the Pacific.
It is customary regarding the declaration (unofficial, obviously) of the results State by State and then nationally to consider the communications regarding the Associated Press which has precise rules.
by Mauro della Porta Raffo, Honorary President of the Italy USA Foundation
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