And the blow was served. According to estimates released by Facile.it, between November and December families with indexed price contracts on the free market risk seeing an increase of almost 51% compared to the same period last year.
We are talking specifically about variable price contracts which provide for a cost of the raw material that is not fixed, but which moves following the trend of the wholesale market. And with the geopolitical fibrillations that have had Hormuz as their epicenter, it is not a good time for anyone who has signed up to an offer of this type.
Pun sharply rising
To develop the projections, the comparison portal analyzed the consumption of a typical family (2,000 kWh per year), crossing the actual prices recorded by the Italian Energy Markets Manager at the beginning of autumn with the prices of forward contracts traded on the main European energy market (European energy exchange).
What emerges is a strong upward trajectory for the Pun (the single national price of wholesale electricity): forecasts indicate an average of 258 euro/MWh in November (+121% on November 2025) and 247 euro/MWh in December (+114%).
How much do bills increase in November and December
Translated into the final bill: the bill of a family on the free market with a variable tariff would rise to around 84 euros in November and 91 euros in December. With the same consumption, for the last two months of the year this is an additional outlay of approximately 59 euros compared to last year’s invoices.
The hypothesis of price increases comes after an already uphill autumn: average spending in the months of September and October had in fact already grown by around 40% on an annual basis (+17 euros in September and +22 euros in October). If the estimates for the next two months were confirmed, the increased overall spending in the September-December four-month period would reach 99 euros compared to 2025.