One method to obtain fairly precise indications on the political preferences (in some cases, given the long times of uniform voting, in some way on memberships) of the states of the Union in view of the Presidential elections may be to take into consideration whether, where and from how much they present cases of Trifecta. This is a term that describes and indicates a situation in which in a state a single party holds the governorship and the majority in the two branches of the local parliament. Currently, there are forty states that present a Trifecta (the powers being divided among the remaining ten). Twenty-three Republicans and seventeen Democrats.
Well, the more distant the moment in which this outcome occurred and from which it lasts, the greater the probability that in the Presidential elections the State will take one side rather than the other. The UtahFor starters, he has been a Republican since 1985. Since 1995, Idaho and the two Dakotas, North and South, have also voted for the Grand Old Party. Nebraska (moreover, a unicameral system where, moreover, the Winner Takes All Method is not in use for choosing the Electors, i.e. the members of the College that actually elects the President) also considered republican, it is the last one to propose (1999) a date belonging to the last century (if desired, millennium).
In fact, they are the five listed states that ultimately side (except occasionally for the Nebraska district of Omaha) consistently with the GOP. So too has the heavy (in terms of the above-mentioned Electors) Texas, but since 2003. Florida and Ohiooften Republicans in leap Novembers, since 2011. Said that the longest-lasting Democratic Trifecta, Delaware, dates back to 2009, let's look at the most important states (always with reference to the future members of the aforementioned College) that are normally democratic in the elections for the Executive Mansion. There California, the “heaviest” of all, has been Trifecta dem since 2011, like Connecticut. The New Jersey since 2018. The New Yorkmost recently, since 2019.
Shifting attention to states that present divided powers, it is certainly important Pennsylvania, such since 2015, who in fact voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden four years later. The data not proposed here can be consulted in the appropriate tables, in particular on Ballotpedia.
Mauro della Porta Raffo
Honorary President of the Italy USA Foundation
The article The Trifecta prophecy: how the US presidential elections will end comes from Nicola Porro.