How the presidential electoral system works in the United States is a known question. But a brief review doesn’t hurt, in view of the match between Donald Trump And Kamala Harris. The overall popular vote, on a national scale, counts for absolutely nothing. What matters is the popular vote expressed by citizens for each individual state. The candidate who obtains even just one more vote than the others in each State wins all the Great Electors assigned for each individual State. The total number of electors is 538. The candidate who gets at least 270 wins.
Now let’s see how things are this time. The latest polls from the US tell us that Trump would be ahead by around two percentage points in Pennsylvania and three in Georgia. In Pennsylvania, the urban centers of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, historic Dem strongholds, recorded a recovery of the candidate of the Republican Party, also due to the crisis in the automotive sector (the disappointed and dissatisfied, as we know, vote for the candidate opposite to the one expressed by current administration). The peripheral areas see Trump with a more solid advantagebut this time too the most populous cities will make the difference. In Georgia, Trump’s victory seems more likely, but we still need to see the flow of votes from the large urban centers.
Less risky for Republicans is Arizonawhere Trump’s lead would currently be around four percentage points. The situation in Wisconsin and Michigan is more complexwhere the Democratic candidate Harris was ahead of Trump until a few weeks ago, while in recent days the polls are neck and neck: parity in Wisconsin and only one point more for Trump in Michigan. North Carolina instead sees Harris ahead by one point. Nevada, which seemed to go to Trump, now sees a recovery from Harris, ahead in the polls by about 0.2%.
In short, in the worst case scenario for the Republicans, if Trump were to win in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona, and instead lose in Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina and Nevada, he would still be elected President with 281 electors. And even if he loses in Arizona, he would still become President with 270 electors. In the latter case, however, there would be the risk that some Great Voters may not vote as per popular indication, but so far – considering the very rare times that this has happened – it has never been decisive for the election of the President.
Decisive and decisive are therefore 2 states, Pennsylvania and Georgia, which in 2020 went to the Democratic candidate Joe Biden thanks to the postal vote (capable of overturning the result resulting from the polls), the counting of which ended a few days after election day. Yes, the postal vote. As many as 32 million voters have already voted in the USAalmost a record. However, compared to four years ago, this time it is assumed that the Republicans have equipped themselves in the controls in each individual county. That’s what logic says, but we’ll see.
This is our analysis based on US polls. Then it is obvious that, in the secrecy of the ballot box and the postal vote, anything can always happen. We often complain about our country, but on this point it must be said that in Italy, since postal voting is not allowed and the ballot paper has an anti-fraud stamp, we don’t have the headaches of the United States.
Paolo Becchi and Giuseppe Palma
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