Russian President Vladimir Putin could test NATO by launching a limited attack against a member state of the alliance in the coming years. The Wall Street Journal reports it, citing new information from US intelligence.
Until the beginning of this year, US analysts considered direct action by the Kremlin against a NATO member country unlikely, but in recent months the assessments have changed and the 007s seriously fear that Putin could plan aggressive actions or targeted provocations on the eastern flank of Europe. Moscow’s attack could happen already in the short to medium term, between the autumn of this year and 2029, while the war in Ukraine is still ongoing.
Moscow’s alleged plans
According to the report, the 007s consider several scenarios:
- Hybrid warfare. Massive cyberattacks aimed at destabilizing the critical infrastructures of member countries.
- Covert raids. The sending of unidentified armed groups to temporarily occupy portions of territory on the border.
- A true limited land incursion. Although considered a low-probability scenario, intelligence signals that the risk is likely to grow as time passes.
How would NATO respond?
As Heather Conley, a senior research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, pointed out, “the question is how the United States would react if that were the case.” The researcher points out that Moscow has always set itself the objective of “challenging the credibility of NATO and separating” the US “from its allies”.
It goes without saying that around Moscow they suspect that Trump would not tear his clothes if a European country were attacked, while in the old continent diplomacy has often been preferred to weapons. “NATO’s challenge has always been to respond to an Article 5 attack, and it is true that so far NATO allies have preferred not to escalate the situation,” Conley said.
Not to mention that there are gray areas in the agreements signed by the allies. While an armed incursion by land would trigger Article 5 on collective defense, the report highlights that the Alliance clause is not as clear or automatic in defining what the response should be to cyber attacks or hybrid threats.
The war in Iran has reduced US weapons supplies
Complicating the picture is the pressure on the US defense supply chain. The analysis highlights how the huge supplies sent to the theaters of war have reduced American strategic supplies, limiting Washington’s immediate room for maneuver in the event of a new simultaneous emergency.
According to Reuters, citing four sources familiar with internal Pentagon data, the United States has now used almost all of its ground-launched long-range tactical missiles, fueling fears about Washington’s ability to simultaneously address other possible crisis scenarios.
At the center of concern are the Atacams (Army Tactical Missile Systems) and the more modern Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), devices capable of hitting targets hundreds of kilometers away with high precision. Two of the sources cited by the agency speak of stocks now “virtually exhausted”, although no official numbers are provided on the missiles still available.