What is there to cheer about? France without a majority: the 5 hypotheses

Elly Thin he rejoices. Joseph With you sing victory. Sandro Gozi Enrico Letta, Paolo Gentiloni and so on and so forth: all happy and content with the failed victory of Jordan Bardella And Marine The …

France, don't be fooled by the withdrawals

Elly Thin he rejoices. Joseph With you sing victory. Sandro Gozi Enrico Letta, Paolo Gentiloni and so on and so forth: all happy and content with the failed victory of Jordan Bardella And Marine The Pen in the French elections. Right. Good. But now?

The final data, which arrived this morning, confirm the sensational overtaking of Popular Front to the detriment of both the Macronians and the Le Penists. But above all they certify that France is now in total chaos. Or rather: it is in the classic Italian system, where everyone has won and no one has won, and to form a government it is necessary to find pacts and agreements between movements that until the day before yesterday were spitting in each other’s faces. We early turncoats have become accustomed to it: but beyond the Alps?

The official results show a very “divided” National Assembly, as he admits Glucksman. The New Popular Front will have 182 seats, Ensemble 168 seats and the Rassemblement National 143. Further behind are all the others: the Republicans and others on the right with 60 seats, others on the left 13 seats, centrists 6 seats and regionalist 4. President Emmanuel Macron took three days to assess the situation while Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced his resignation yesterday. But the truth is that it would take a magician, or perhaps we can lend our cousins ​​Matteo Renzi, to put together the alchemy of this policy.

The Popular Front is in fact already split. Mélenchon asks Macron to step aside or to appoint a prime minister from the Popular Front, excluding any alliance with those Macronians with whom he has however put in place the desistances. Even the leader of the ecologists, Marine Tondelier, asks Emmanuel for a prime minister from their group. The other parties of the FP, on the other hand, do not think like France Insoumise: they are ready to come to terms with the presidential coalition. They made it clear last night Olivier Faure (PS), Manuel Bompard (LFI) and Fabien Roussel (PCF). Glucksmann thinks the same, according to whom the parties must show themselves to be “adults” and dialogue. Yes, but with whom? The president’s coalition in fact excludes that Mélenchon can govern France. And many ask to exclude all the extremes, both those of Le Pen and the anti-Semites. Republicans Gaullists, on the other hand, call for a “right-wing” government.

  1. New Popular Front Government in which Mèlenchon would be the master. In the absence of an absolute majority, the idea would be to form a minority executive that would approve part of his program by decree. France is not new to executives of this type, but given the heterogeneity of the NFP forces, it is possible that it will last from Christmas to Boxing Day.
  2. Ensemble-Republican Government. If the Macronians and the Gaullists were to reach an agreement and join forces with other right-wing parties, they could aspire to obtain the premiership from Macron. In total, they would make about 231 deputies. “The country is on the right. We must govern on the right. And not have a coalition with La France Insoumise and the Nouveau Front Populaire,” said Gèrald Darmanin. “We are turning to the Republicans,” reiterated Benjamin Haddad, a deputy from the Ensemble and former national secretary of the UMP. Small problem: this government could easily fall under the blows of a motion of censure voted together by the New Popular Front (182 deputies) and the National Rally (143). Unless there is an agreement to abstain with some parties.
  3. German-style government. In this case, all the “centrists” should join together, excluding the extremes. So the socialists, the Macronians and the Gaullists. In total, they would make over 296 deputies: an absolute majority, although narrow. But the negotiations to form the government would be very long.
  4. Government technician. If none of this comes to fruition, there is always the “Draghi” option. The French should “copy” the Italians, who have experienced all sorts of things over the past 10 years. A sort of government of national unity, made up of technicians and economists, led by a non-divisive figure. There have been some in France, but this one would not – in all likelihood – even have a large majority in the Assembly. It would always be threatened by a motion of no confidence.
  5. Crisis institutional. Faced with the impossibility of forming a government, Macron would see France sink into chaos. Where did he take it by surprisingly dissolving the chambers?.

TheVermilion.com is also on Whatsapp. Just click here to subscribe to the channel and always be updated (free).