Donald Trump expects Iran to surrender after the US midterm elections, but has admitted he thinks US petrol prices are unlikely to fall before then. “They are doing very badly” the US president explained to journalists before leaving for Dallas. “Their country is broken right now. They have, as you probably saw from the numbers, 300% inflation. Their currency is worthless. They don’t pay their soldiers. We control the Strait (of Hormuz, ed.) and a lot of other things.”
Then Trump launched into a prediction: “Immediately after the elections, oil prices will collapse dramatically. They will collapse, and we will make them fall. I think we will bring gasoline prices below $2 a gallon.”
“I think it’s going to take a little longer than the midterm elections,” he later admitted in response to a reporter’s question. “They are desperate and trying to influence elections so they can put a nice bunch of weak people in power, leave them alone and allow them to get nuclear weapons.” “They can’t stand it any longer,” Trump added, saying he was sure that the Iranian regime would try to end the conflict “immediately after the elections”, causing a collapse in oil prices.
The price of oil above 100 dollars
Trump’s prediction, assuming it turns out to be correct, is not of much comfort given that the midterm elections are set for November 3. The reality is that the tycoon’s words seem more dictated by electoral needs than by the evidence of the facts. Meanwhile, the price of a barrel has jumped to over 100 dollars (in recent days it had remained around 95) after Iran declared it had attacked over a dozen boats attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz. In short, it rains in the wet.
Will the island of Perim become the new Hormuz?
Meanwhile, CNN warns that a new front could soon open up for control of the Yemeni island of Perim. Located in the Bab al-Mandab Strait of Yemen, this small strip of land is a key crossing point connecting the Red Sea to the Horn of Africa. With the closure of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia diverted its oil exports to the Red Sea, making Bab al-Mandab a world energy hub of great importance.
Houthi rebels, supported by Iran, have now reportedly launched an offensive towards the coastal city of Mocha. Their objective – writes CNN – is to take control of the island of Perim and, consequently, have the ability to block maritime and commercial traffic in the Red Sea. “If history teaches us anything, Bab al-Mandab – the smaller twin of the Strait of Hormuz and now a crucial alternative to it – could be where Iran, through its allies, tightens its economic and political grip on Trump, driving up oil prices and damaging Republican prospects in November’s US midterm elections.”