There are many considerations that come into play when choosing which seat to book on an airplane. You may prefer the seat near the window, to enjoy the view and manage the curtain as you wish. The ones along the corridor, to be wider and get up when you want. You can bet everything on a seat at the front, to get off as quickly as possible upon landing. Or choose seats in the front row, or those close to the emergency exits, to have more legroom. Everyone has their own ideas on the matter. But if we talk about safety, the situation changes. Is there a way to make sure you are in the place where you have the greatest chance of surviving in the event of an accident? There are no scientific studies on the subject, also because obviously every airline catastrophe is a story in itself. But decades of airline crash statistics actually provide some guidance. Let’s see which ones.
How much do you risk on a plane?
Meanwhile, to avoid fueling anxiety and alarmism, it is good to remember that airliners are among the safest forms of transport. Much more than, for example, traveling by car. In fact, an Italian has about a one in 200 chance of dying in a car accident in his lifetime (extrapolating the risks from Istat data on car accidents). While every time we take the plane we have about a one in 13.7 million chance that it will prove fatal.
It’s clear that most of us travel by car much more than we do by plane. But all things considered, flying remains infinitely safer than road transport. Furthermore, most plane crashes end with a happy ending: in 94 percent of cases, 100 percent of the passengers survive. Obviously unfortunately there are also fatal accidents. In these cases, what do the statistics tell us about the safest places to sit?
Better on the bottom
A possible answer comes from an analysis carried out by Popular Mechanics magazine on data from the American National Transportation Safety Board. Studying the survival rates in a pool of 20 plane crashes with fatalities that occurred between 1971 and 2017, it emerged that the chances of survival of passengers sitting in the rear rows of the plane are approximately 69 percent, those of those sitting in the wings are 56 percent, while for the front seats, in business, it drops to 49 percent.
Other analyzes provide different numbers, but a substantially identical scenario. Some time ago, for example, Corriere della Sera used data from the US Civil Aviation Authority on accidents between 1969 and 2013, obtaining a survival probability of 40 percent in the front rows, and increasing chances moving towards the back of the plane, up to 74 percent for those sitting in the last 10 rows in the seats along the aisle side or between the two aisles.
Not all accidents are the same
The reason why rear seats are often safer is easy to understand: most plane crashes happen at the tip, with the front hitting the ground first, cushioning the impact for those in the rear. Another important aspect for survival is the time taken to evacuate the aircraft once on the ground. Usually we talk about 90 seconds as the perfect timing to minimize risks.
This obviously benefits travelers sitting near the emergency exits, towards the center of the plane. However, in the event of fires they are even more exposed to risks, given that they are located directly above the fuel tanks. If for some reason the plane were to touch the ground with its tail, before the nose, then the situation would probably be reversed, and the passengers in the rear rows would be the ones who would take the hardest hit. In short, there is no rule. But statistics in hand, it seems that the rear seats on the aisle side, with quick access to the emergency exits, are those with the greatest chance of survival. Typically, they are also the least desirable seats on the plane. So if safety is your priority when choosing a seat, chances are you won’t have any problems finding them free.