The construction site of the 2027 economic maneuver, the last budget law of the Meloni government’s legislature, officially opens today, Friday 2 October. The economic context is not the best, due to the increase in energy costs and the grip of inflation. This is why Giorgia Meloni wrote a letter to Ursula von del Leyen, president of the European Commission, asking for more flexibility: in these conditions, with the “limited space” granted by the European budget rules on spending, it will not be possible to help families and businesses without “restrictive measures”. Brussels immediately got its act together: “We have already given more flexibility to the member states.”
The first steps
The fact is that today the approval of the Dpfp (public finance planning document) is expected in the Council of Ministers: the text must contain the main points of what will be the next maneuver, together with the related financial coverage. The document in question could be accompanied by a report on the clause linked to energy and defense, if the government decides to activate it. For this reason, yesterday evening the prime minister brought together at Palazzo Chigi the two deputy prime ministers and leaders of Lega and Forza Italia, Matteo Salvini and Antonio Tajani, the leader of Noi Moderati Maurizio Lupi and the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti.
The intervention on Irpef
What could come into play? We are in the realm of hypotheses, of course, at the moment. As we have explained in detail here, the “menu” of the budget law should start, constraints permitting, from the extension of the cut in the second Irpef rate for incomes up to 60 thousand euros, but the focus will also be on the 5% flat tax for salary increases for young people and on flat tax (with some limitations) for shops.
65% Ecobonus: the idea of increasing relief on home work
Confirmation of the 50% ecobonus for first homes is also possible, but in these hours we are working to further raise the bar: we are thinking of a 65% relief on renovations for energy efficiency. Yesterday the Deputy Minister of Economy Maurizio Leo spoke about a possible strengthening of incentives for the energy requalification of buildings. “We need to work on incentives for energy efficiency because there we can raise the bar higher and we don’t have problems with the accounts”, he said, recalling the margin offered by the European flexibility clause for energy. The hypothesis is to increase the deduction from 50 to 65%, as also requested by Confartigianato.
Rates, permitted interventions and precise conditions will still have to be defined. Deputy Minister Leo made a distinction between private and public assets. For the first, “we try to raise the bar higher than 50%”, he explained, citing the thermal coat and solar panels. For the second, however, he indicated the possibility of intervening on healthcare and school structures.
According to the current rules, for expenses incurred in 2026 the ecobonus is worth 50% for owners or holders of a real right who intervene on the main residence, 36% in other cases. In 2027, without a new legislative change, the two percentages will drop to 36 and 30% respectively. A possible move to 65% would therefore mark a reversal compared to the reduction already envisaged. We’ll see.
Between “seriousness” and concern
On the topic of the next maneuver, Giorgetti called for “seriousness”, also in light of the performance of government bonds and the rise in yields. Faced with a spread that has reached 118.5 points, concern is high. The special observation is always inflation.
However, Deputy Minister Maurizio Leo was more unbalanced in a meeting with the executive board of Confartigianato: “With all sincerity I must tell you that it will be a difficult budget law. Due to the effect of inflation, due to the maintenance of public accounts, due to the effect of the public debt at the moment in which we go to issue the securities”. The deputy minister then continued: “You have seen the spread, we have always kept it under control and due to the increase in energy it is reaching 100. We hope that the European Union understands this situation and comes to our aid, gives us more flexibility and this gives us a little more oxygen in making more targeted interventions”.
As the deputy minister underlined, we cannot say “let’s not be interested in maintaining public accounts and go overboard, even for laudable initiatives, not to squander the money”, instead “we really have to be prudent because the moment we take slightly more casual measures we risk a collapse for the State, remember what happened in Greece many years ago”. Leo then underlined that other countries that have made large overruns “do not have a public debt like Italy” and “we need to see the repercussions they have”.
The escape clause
The budget law is intertwined with the issue of the safeguard clause for flexibility on energy and defence. The government is oriented towards activating it, and together with the public finance policy document it should present an ad hoc report, which will then be voted on in the Chamber with the relative deviation. The date is already set for Tuesday 13 October.