Seasonal forecasts are starting to paint a precise picture for the coming months. And the suspicion is that the climatic conditions could be a prelude to a fiery 2027: after a two-year truce, the El Niño phenomenon could in fact return to influence the world climate. Pushing temperatures higher again, even in Europe, where this weather phenomenon is often associated with particularly intense summer heat waves. For climate scientists, this is not an absolute surprise. But the new El Niño would be part of a warming trend that has lasted for several years now, and according to some forecast models it risks proving extremely intense, opening the door to extreme thermal and meteorological anomalies in the hot months of 2027.
The “breath of the Pacific”
To understand what’s happening, we need to imagine the Pacific Ocean as Earth’s great thermostat. In fact, it is there that the Enso oscillation (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) acts, a cycle linked to the action of the trade winds which alternates cooling phases (La Niña) in which the colder deep waters rise to the surface, with El Niño periods in which the surface waters of the equatorial Pacific warm up, releasing enormous quantities of heat and energy into the atmosphere. In between exists the so-called “neutral phase”, a condition of equilibrium in which ocean temperatures do not deviate significantly from the average. If La Niña tends to temporarily mitigate the average global temperature, El Niño acts in the opposite direction, releasing heat from the ocean into the atmosphere, increasing rainfall and the power of extreme weather events in some regions, and above all, increasing the average temperatures of the entire planet by up to half a degree.
The context: where we come from
In recent years we have been witnessing a strong alternation between the two extremes of the Enso cycle. After a long period dominated by La Niña between 2020 and 2023, an El Niño phenomenon followed in 2023-2024, and then a new two-year weak La Niña (which did not prevent 2025 from proving to be the third warmest year since records began), which is starting to end in recent weeks. The current stasis, defined as the “neutral phase”, is destined to last for most of the summer, but according to the World Meteorological Organization (WOM), ocean buoys and satellites are starting to show signs of a possible change arriving in the coming months.
The forecast for 2026
According to the latest WMO bulletin, the probability that neutral conditions will persist until July is high, oscillating between 60% and 70%. However, as we enter the second half of the year, mathematical models show a constant growth in the probability of a return of El Niño, which reaches 40% already in the May-July quarter. It is confirmation that the system is accumulating energy.
However, there is a technical obstacle for meteorologists: the so-called “boreal spring barrier”. At this time of year, models struggle to accurately predict the intensity of Enso phenomena. Net of this forecast limit, the analyzes of the main computer centers suggest a rapid transition. And if the transition is abrupt, we could find ourselves facing a strong or even “super” El Niño already in the second half of the year.
The effect on 2027
The crucial point, however, concerns the long-term effects. Historically, the greatest impact of El Niño on global temperatures is not felt in the year in which the phenomenon begins, but in the following year. This means that if El Niño were to consolidate between the end of 2026 and the beginning of next year, 2027 would be a candidate to be a significantly warmer year than average. In addition to heat, the return of the phenomenon would lead to a redistribution of precipitation, with potential droughts in Australia and parts of Asia, heavier rains on the American Pacific coasts, and the risk of droughts and extreme heat waves in the Mediterranean. Let’s get ready, therefore, because the next two summers could prove to be really hot.