Changing everything to change nothing. When reading the previews on the memorandum of understanding advanced by the United States to Iran, one cannot help but think of the famous quote taken from the novel The Leopard, by Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa. Because the negotiations between Washington and Tehran seem to lead to the same agreement signed by Barack Obama in 2015 (the Joint comprehensive plan of action). What do the 14 points underlying the negotiations foresee and what could be in the peace proposal.
Give 14 points to peace
An unofficial text on the negotiations that the parties are conducting has not yet been leaked. The details need to be ironed out and the parties have yet to reach the final green light. Trump himself reiterated that there is no agreement “but we are not far away”. The president of the United States gave Iranian mediators 24-48 hours to reach an agreement. Presumably the times will take longer, but the tycoon still hopes that the pact will be signed before his arrival in China scheduled for May 14th.
The site Axios anticipated the basis of negotiations between Washington and Iran. This is a one-page memorandum with 14 points. It is a perimeter that will then be explored in depth in the 30 days, as expected, starting from the signing of the agreement. During this period, the two countries should deepen the agreement that they will sign later and which will establish the framework for diplomatic and commercial relations.
The venue for subsequent negotiations should be Islamabad (Pakistan) or Geneva (Switzerland). During the month of negotiations, the Iranian blockade on navigation in the Strait of Hormuz would be gradually eased, as would the US naval blockade on the Pasdaran ports. Then there is the question of uranium enrichment: Washington would like to impose a 20-year moratorium, Tehran has proposed 5. The countries could meet little more than halfway: a 12-15 year option is being explored. However, Washington would like to add a corollary that would lengthen the moratorium in case of Iranian infractions. However, there is uncertainty about what happens afterwards, Iran would like to go back to enriching uranium to 3.67 percent (the limit for civilian uses), while Trump seems to reject this prospect.
A fundamental point concerns Iran’s reserves of uranium enriched to 60 percent. The tycoon demands that they be delivered to the United States. Also according to the memorandum of understanding, Tehran would undertake not to acquire nuclear weapons – a clause is being considered that would prohibit the ayatollahs from controlling underground facilities – and Washington for its part would eliminate sanctions against Iran and release funds frozen abroad.
The Obama deal
In 2015, Iran, the United States, Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom and Germany signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action which regulated Iranian nuclear capabilities. For 15 years, Tehran accepted a reduction in uranium enrichment to 3.67 percent in exchange for the lifting of Western sanctions. Many points on which we are negotiating at the moment seem to retrace this agreement, even if it is premature to make comparisons when a definitive text is missing. One difference remains central: in the text signed by Obama, Iran would have handed over the tons of uranium not yet enriched to Russia. While Trump would like to import Iranian enriched reserves into the United States.
It could take Iran a year to have the bomb
As negotiations continue, American intelligence, according to Reuterswould have reduced the success of operations Epic Fury (USA) and Roar of the Lion (Israel). According to the source interviewed, the offensives on Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 would not have compromised the ayatollahs’ ability to obtain a nuclear bomb. Before the attacks, Tehran could have taken 3 to 9 months to build a bomb. Now he would need 9 to 12 months. However, even this information, if true, cannot be directly verified on the ground since it is not yet possible to carry out inspections on the sites affected by the bombings.