The Meloni government must find the money to finance the next economic measure, the most important, because it is the last of the legislature and which precedes the elections. It won’t be easy: there are quite a few missing funds. Around 10 billion euros of coverage are missing and the Ministry of Economy is thinking about how to set it up. Palazzo Chigi’s portfolio has to deal with a list of requests that is much longer than available. Promises have a cost.
How much does the latest Meloni maneuver cost: the “promises” are already worth 11 billion
To understand how complicated the search for coverage is, just line up some of the measures discussed in the majority and the requests made by the ministries. Meanwhile, the numbers tell us that there is already some problem. The Public Finance Policy Document (DPFP) essentially leaves no room for new interventions in 2027 without coverage. The quantification is simple: zero. Some expansion possibilities appear only in 2028 and 2029.
In other words, to keep fiscal promises and expand benefits, the government will have to find more revenue, reduce other expenses or give up some of the announced measures.
| Measurement or request | Cost indicated for 2027 |
| Irpef extension at 33% up to 60 thousand euros | 2.6 billion |
| Early retirement at 64, proposed by the League | 1.6 billion |
| Additional resources requested by Healthcare | 5.5 billion |
| Additional funding requested by Municipalities | 1 billion |
| Possible intervention on the Tfs of public employees | 500-600 million |
| Indicative total of requests considered | 11.2-11.3 billion |
The expansion of the Irpef bracket alone up to 60 thousand euros is estimated at around 2.6 billion. Today, after the cut already introduced by the 2026 Budget Law, the 33% rate concerns the taxable income range between 28 thousand and 50 thousand euros. The extension to the next 10 thousand euros would lead, in the case of a taxable income of at least 60 thousand euros, to a maximum additional theoretical saving of one thousand euros per year, before any corrections.
The League instead insists on the possibility of extending access to an early pension at 64 to those who started working before 1996, with an allowance calculated entirely using the contributory system. The estimated cost is approximately 1.6 billion per year.
On the healthcare front, Minister Orazio Schillaci has asked for an additional 5.5 billion compared to what has already been foreseen, to support staff, assistance, medicines and higher costs of the structures. The ANCI demands another billion for municipal services.
The extraordinary flexibility requested from Brussels: what Meloni does with 14.4 billion euros
The margin for maneuver is zero and the government has requested extraordinary flexibility of 0.6% of GDP, equivalent to approximately 14.4 billion euros in 2027, divided equally between defense and energy security. Of the 7.2 billion earmarked for defense, approximately 2.4 were already foreseen in the public accounts: the additional resources are therefore approximately 4.8 billion for defense and 7.2 for energy, for a total of approximately 12 billion of greater budget space.
For defense, the government plans interventions on personnel, operational capabilities and investment programs. For energy, the proposed measures concern aid to families and businesses, renewables, making public buildings more efficient and infrastructure for sustainable mobility. The European Commission has expressed an initial favorable assessment, but the process is not yet concluded.
Pensions, banks, insurance and gaming: where the government gets its billions
The hunt for billions to finance the maneuver risks resulting in fewer increases for pensioners and higher taxes for some economic sectors. So the government studies where to recover the money from. The first target is banks and insurance companies, from which Matteo Salvini would like to obtain at least 5 billion euros, against the 2-3 billion initially hypothesized. The deputy prime minister hopes for a “voluntary, joyful and spontaneous” contribution, but the agreement is yet to be written. The president of the ABI, Antonio Patuelli, recalls that the banks have already signed a three-year agreement worth 10.5 billion, of which approximately 3.7 billion will have effects on the 2027 accounts.
The other hypothesis concerns pensions: the government could consider tightening the revaluation of medium-high pensions, reducing the increases linked to inflation. Ordinary equalization could cost around 10 billion in 2027, but it is not yet known how much could actually be saved. There would also be higher taxes on tobacco, gaming and energy companies, particularly oil companies, on the table, as well as the possibility of recovering around 2 billion in unused Pnrr funds.
The calendar towards the Maneuver
Deadlines are now tight. Parliamentary passage on the public finance policy document and the report accompanying the request for flexibility is expected on Tuesday 13 October. The government will have to send the budget plan to Brussels by Thursday 15 October, while the budget bill is expected in Parliament by 20 October.
But after four years of Giorgia Meloni, are we ultimately richer or poorer?
The accounts already presented by the government are clear: to finance new measures in 2027, outside the European exemptions, coverage is needed. Every euro allocated to an intervention must be identified in revenue or spending cuts. Or, perhaps, in the renunciation of some other promise.