Donald Trump could find himself with a Congress ready to investigate every aspect of his administration, dating back to his first presidential term. And a third impeachment procedure is not ruled out. This scenario is proposed by John Bolton, former White House National Security Advisor, who in an interview with Adnkronos analyzes the possible consequences of a Republican defeat in the midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
According to Bolton, a possible victory for the Democrats in the House or Senate would open a season of parliamentary investigations, hearings and institutional clashes destined to accompany Trump until the end of his second term in January 2029. “It will be very unpleasant for Trump, and he knows it,” warns the former advisor.
Bolton: “Two unhappy years for Trump.” The risk of congressional investigations
The November 3 elections will renew all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and approximately a third of the Senate. The result will determine the political balance of Congress for the last two years of Trump’s presidency.
The conquest of even just one House would allow the Democrats to exercise greater parliamentary control over the executive, through the commissions of the conquered branch. These can carry out investigations, call hearings and, within the limits of their respective competences and rules, request testimonies and documents.
“Democrats, in the House or Senate, depending on which of the two houses of Congress they win, will try to make sure that each parliamentary committee investigates Trump within the scope of their jurisdiction,” Bolton says. The checks, according to his prediction, would not only concern the first two years of the current presidency, but also the activities of the first mandate, from 2017 to 2021.
Defeat, however, would not necessarily lead to Trump taking responsibility. “Trump sees the world divided into two categories of people, winners and losers. He is a winner. So if the Republicans lose control of the House or the Senate, it won’t be his fault. It will be someone else’s fault,” Bolton argues.
According to the former advisor, the president would attribute the negative result to the Republican candidates and their electoral campaigns, avoiding interpreting it as a rejection of his own political line.
Because 67 votes would be needed in the Senate for the third impeachment
The most delicate scenario outlined by Bolton concerns the possibility of a new impeachment procedure, the constitutional instrument through which Congress can formally impeach the president and other federal officials.
“I think they’ll probably impeach Trump at some point. And while they’re at it, they might impeach Hegseth, too,” Bolton says, referring to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
However, the former councilor clearly distinguishes the opening of a procedure from the possibility of being removed from office. In the United States, in fact, impeachment is decided by the House of Representatives with a simple majority. The next phase takes place in the Senate, where a two-thirds majority of senators present is required for a conviction: 67 votes if all 100 senators participate.
“I don’t see under what circumstances they could reach 67 in the next two years,” Bolton notes. Even with the support of some Republicans, he estimated, Democrats could get 58 or 59 votes, insufficient for a conviction.
To initiate a possible third impeachment it would still be necessary to obtain a majority in the House. Conquering the Senate alone would not be enough. Trump has already faced two impeachment proceedings during his first term: one in 2019 and one in 2021. In both cases he was acquitted by the Senate, on February 5, 2020 and February 13, 2021 respectively.