We publish an analysis by the communication expert Fabrizio Amadori on the latest developments of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Some might argue that Putin fell into the trap of USAwho, by supporting NATO’s expansion to the East, knew that they could push Putin to take ill-advised actions. Some analysts such as Grappling hookshowever, they pointed out that both inflation and the high dollar resulting from the war could only harm the American economy. According to the well-known essayist, the war had brought the Bornyes, but NATO can no longer have the importance it once had in the eyes of Washington, since Europe does not have it. And in short, America would never have worked behind the scenes to start and then fuel a war in Europe if the goal had been not only to strengthen its own economy, but the Atlantic Alliance.
These considerations of the well-known essayist lead to further considerations. If it is true, as Rampini rightly says, that the real objective of the USA is to effectively counteract the Chinait is also true that Beijing has long been looking at Europe with great attention, evidently considering it a strategic objective. Such an observation alone would be enough to scale down the old adage according to which Washington no longer looks with particular interest to the Old Continent. In Europe, moreover, another strategic objective of the USA is and is at work, namely, Russia, in its role as a new ally of Beijing in an anti-American key. For Washington, scaling down Moscow means weakening Beijing, and this war could prove decisive for this purpose. The USA has long been studying a scenario in which, one day not far off, they could have to face Moscow and Beijing together, and, in this sense, it is not only important that Russia is weakened, but that it has no strategic relations with Europe, and only a sufficiently long Ukrainian war can guarantee a clean break in Moscow-EU relations. It did not have to and must not have these strategic relations, because Washington wants Europe on its side without hesitation in the event of a conflict with China in which Beijing is allied with Russia. It is not clear what Europe’s role would be in an American conflict against China in the Pacific, nor how it could be fought without the use of tactical nuclear weapons, especially if Russia were to be involved, which, at least in words, has seemed ready to use them in a clash much less demanding than the possible one with the USA, namely the conflict with Kiev. But it goes without saying that an Old Continent detached from Russian energy influence would be important in such a scenario. In the meantime, Washington cannot help but take note of Putin’s desire to push Russia towards ever greater economic and technological isolation from the West. A necessary move for the Head of the Kremlin, who, unable to lose the war, must continue it and, consequently, react with partial autarchy to sanctions destined to continue over time.
The war is redrawing fundamental geopolitical relations, where even NATO could regain a fundamental weight in an anti-Chinese perspective. Both because it could keep part of Moscow’s forces busy in Europe even without fighting, in the event that the Sino-Russian troops were to join forces against the US in the Pacific, and because its formula is so effective that it could be extended elsewhere. For example, by involving the Asian countries that are already asking to join, although NATO is notoriously a defensive alliance designed above all for Europe. In a global scenario, however, where the opposition between liberal democracies and illiberal democracies allied with dictatorships is developing ever more clearly, a change in the nature of NATO by Washington and its extension to other parts of the world cannot be ruled out. After all, Washington has moved forward with the creation of various local military alliances such as theAucus and the Quadwhose goal is to form a global safety net led by the United States. And it is unthinkable that NATO could remain outside of such a system. Only, it is necessary to convince the ever-recalcitrant Europeans to join by putting on the scales a series of military pacts already tested around the world with which it makes sense to interact.
Fabrizio Amadori