It’s no longer a question of if, but when. It now seems done – barring last-minute surprises, sudden offensives and mood swings – between the United States and Iran. The two sides are ready to sign a memorandum that outlines the framework of the talks on which the negotiators will have to find an agreement to finally reach a peace agreement. On June 13th there were several announcements and related denials regarding the day and place of the signing. The bilateral meeting in Geneva (Switzerland) seems to have been postponed, the signing of the memorandum will most likely be done remotely. But it is not yet clear when this will happen.
Trump’s post
To announce his agreement, the tycoon attacks the Jcpoa (Joint comprehensive plan of action), the agreement signed by Tehran when Barack Obama was still in office as president of the United States: “It was an easy, beautiful and smooth road towards nuclear weapons, which Iran would have already had six years ago and would have used a long time ago”. Trump’s agreement, however, would have a completely different purpose: “It is the exact opposite: a wall against nuclear weapons! In fact, they no longer want a nuclear weapon, nor will they have one, either through purchase, development or any other form of procurement.”
Trump claims that the agreement should be signed on June 14 “and, immediately after signing, the Strait of Hormuz will be open to all.” Any toll project was therefore averted. The president of the United States then goes on at length in the comparison with Obama’s agreement: “Our relationship with Iran is very different and better than what previous administrations have had. Unlike the hundreds of billions of dollars that Obama paid them, including 1.7 billion dollars in cash, there will be no exchange of money.”
The president also suggests that a US expedition will go there to recover “the nuclear dust”: “At the right time, when all is calm, we will go in and recover the nuclear dust, buried deep beneath the towering granite mountains, thanks to our splendid B-2 bombers and their brilliant pilots, and we will dilute it and destroy it, both in Iran and in the United States.”
Trump’s post ends with alternating good wishes and threats: “We look forward to working with Iran and the entire Middle East for a long time to come. We hope this process goes quickly, easily and smoothly. If not, we have the ultimate alternative, which we hope we will never have to use again! Thank you for your attention to this issue!!!”
Tehran: “Sign remotely, not in Geneva”. The Pasdaran: not on June 14th
Confirmations on the agreement are arriving from the other side of the ocean, but uncertainty regarding the timing reigns supreme. A high-level source told broadcasters Al-Arabiya And Al-Hadath that the signing of the Islamabad Declaration, the name used to refer to the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States, will take place remotely and that the meetings in Geneva, Switzerland, will be postponed to a later date. Meetings will be held soon after in Islamabad, Pakistan, to discuss technical issues.
At the same time, the Pasdaran deny that the signature will arrive on June 14th. The Guardians of the Revolution, reports the CNNcriticize President Donald Trump’s “unusual insistence” on signing the agreement. The Pasdaran described the timing as a “test for the Iranian negotiating team” and said Trump’s announcement comes “despite Iranian negotiators having explicitly stated that the memorandum has not yet been finalized and that Sunday’s signing will definitely not happen.”
The drafts
Several drafts of the memorandum have circulated in the last 24 hours. Some would have been spread by the most extremist Iranian factions with the intention of provoking a reaction from Trump and thus boycotting the diplomatic work of the more moderate wings currently in power in Iran. According to a senior US official, there are 5 main points of the agreement which provides for a further 60-day truce: the destruction of uranium reserves, the dismantling of Tehran’s military nuclear program, the unfreezing of funds according to a reward mechanism, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the stop to the financing of terrorist groups.