He appeared in the sky on Christmas day and although now he is moving away from the earth, in his next passage the Asteroid 2024 YR4 is 1 likely 83 probability of hitting our planet. 50 meters wide, currently it is the only space rock that has a current value of 3 on the Turin Impact Hazard Scale, the danger of danger of objects that could impact the earth.
This means that the object deserves the attention of astronomers and the public. The only asteroid to have ever had a higher score on the Turin scale was “Apophis” at the end of 2004: the risk of impact was then reconsidered as unlikely at least for the next century, but new studies will be possible in 2029 when it will be Reached by the NASA Osiris-Rex probe.
But because YR4 worries
Let’s go back to our YR4. As mentioned according to the latest data updated to January 27, 2025, YR4 is 1 likely 83 probability of hitting the land on December 22, 2032.
It is good to explain that it is likely that the risk index changes as astronomers will collect more observations of the object and trace the movement around the sun.
How devastating the impact would be?
Even if the Earth of Earth the Asteroid 2024 YR4 would not end life on Earth, it is not in fact “a destroyer of worlds”: it is not big enough to do it. However, it could bring destruction at the local level depending on the place of impact: it is thought that it could be similar in size to the object that razed to the ground about two thousand square kilometers of Taiga in Tunguska, Siberia, in 1908.
Well remember how large and small celestial bodies affect the earthly atmosphere with a certain frequency: the impact of a fireball in the sky of Russia remained historical on February 15, 2013: what went to the news as the Chelyabinsk event was the ‘most powerful explosion caused by an asteroid since Tunguska’s time.
Do we have to worry? Soon to say, the potential impact is still seven years away. However, the Asteroid 2024 YR4 represents a challenge for both astronomers – which will not be able to observe it for about three years – and for space science: if further observations confirmed the collision route with the earth it would be the first test of our system of planetary defense inaugurated by the Dart mission, the probe that in 2022 impacted drevorphos, the moon of an asteroid with a diameter of 160 meters, slowing it down even more than expected.
We hit an asteroid, continue to slow down and we don’t know why