The probability of impact of the 2024 YR4 Asteroid with the Earth has increased up to the calculations of NASA, at 3.1%, while according to ESA (European Space Agency) it stands at 2.8%. Any impact, for now, however rather unlikely, should take place on 22 December 2032. But do not worry, or almost. As NASA explains “as more observations are collected and that the data are added to the orbit calculations, this probability is likely to go down to zero”.
The probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 MIGHT Impact Earth in 2032 Has Risend to 2.8%.
This means that it has surpassed the Chance of Impact Briefly Held by the Much Larger Asteroid Apophis Back in 2004.
Learn More About Why the Impact probability is Incursing and Why it couuld … pic.twitter.com/ht1manvwc7
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The 2024 YR4 asteroid and the risk of impact with the earth
It is likely, but it is not obvious. To dispel any doubt, more accurate calculations will be needed. Which can only come from new orbit observations. Astronomes are working tirelessly. Time is tyrant. By April, the row will be too far to be detected by terrestrial telescopes. And therefore goodbye measurements. It will talk about it in 2028 when it will approach our planet again. But there is also the possibility that in the coming weeks the new estimates will exclude any risk. For now it has not gone like this, quite the contrary. Based on NASA’s calculations, the risk of impact went from 1.2 to 2.3 percent and finally to 3.1% today. One possibility out of 32. Not just a little.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_6ff_2ebak
Luca Conversi, head of the coordination center of the objects close to the land of ASA, explained to the ANSA that the row is composed of rocky material, is “large between 40 and 90 meters” and currently “moves away at a speed 82,000 kilometers per hour “. The region of space in which the asteroid could pass in 2032 is today “larger than the land-long distance, but it is gradually narrowing as we have more precise measures”.
The expert explains that a 3% risk “means that the earth roughly occupies 3% of that corridor”. According to Conversi “in 75-80 percent of cases we will be able to exclude the impact already by April”, but there is also the possibility that the next step should be awaited, in 2028. In any case “Europe does not There is no risk “because in the inauspicious hypothesis that the object should fall on earth, the impact would have happened on other areas of the planet.
How much damage can an asteroid do? Obviously it depends on the size
So is there to worry? Scholars are on alert, but confident that in the end the worst will be averted. What if he should hit us? Well, in that case the damage will depend on the actual size of the asteroid which is very uncertain to date. NASA explains that the fall of an asteroid of 40-60 meters could shatter the windows or cause minor structural damage to an entire city. But an asteroid of 90 meters could also cause the collapse of residential structures by shattering the windows in a rather large portion of territory.