Six months lived dangerously: in this case, for these first 180 days of the markets in 2025, it can be said without fear of being denied. The stormy advent of the new Trump administration in the USA, coincided with the war events in Ukraine and the Middle East, has started a moment of great transformations. And many uncertainties. Yet the markets – that when they hear about instability they see black – have not resentful. At least not everyone. Let’s see the detail of the budget of the first six months of this year.
Those who invested 1,000 euros in Piazza Affari on January 2 last today is in his pocket 1,145: it is the performance of the FTSEMIB index, which recovered everything he had lost with the announcement of the US duties of last April. The same 1,000 euros invested in BTP (we take the case of the tenth anniversary, the one used to calculate the spread) today became 1,030 (in practice they made about 3% gross, combined with the 2% coupon and the increase of 1% of the price). Those who focused on the euro against the dollar (using one of the many tools available) is located in pocket 1.131 euros: the dollar has devalued by 13.1%, resulting the size that the price of the new US president’s policies paid most. So much so that an Italian who has invested his 1,000 euros in the American stock exchange or on the Nasdaq, without covering himself from the exchange risk, he would find himself respectively in his pocket 883 and 923 euros (it is the combined arrangement of the drop in the dollar and the growth of Wall Street of 1.7% and of the Nasdaq of 6.3%). In summary, therefore, the investment in Italian (but also European) actions was the best; The government bonds did their part, defending the capital from inflation (which is around 2%); While the American bags have done much less well, even ending up in red for the gear effect.
There are therefore two conclusions that can be drawn. To then reflect on the possible consequences for the next six months. The first is that the rebalancing proposed by Trump in the context of commercial exchanges is favoring European financial investments, even more so because they are called in euros. European bags fly, close to historical tops; The euro makes them even more interesting for foreign investors; Even the fixed income suffers positively, as confirmed by the strong drop in spreads.
The second is that duties and wars do not stop the markets. Of course, they create some asymmetry, so it is no longer the Nasdaq that leads the dances. But in general, signs of optimism continue to arrive from all markets. And growth. Without great concerns for at least three very relevant issues. The first is the Middle East, whose geopolitical tensions could have effects on world growth through the price of oil; The second is the blatant conflict between the Fed and the US President on the drop in interest rates, which places the most important central bank in the world in a difficult situation and sowing uncertainty. The third is the still open question of the duties. Which in this case also generates uncertainty.
In the face of all this, the question to be asked is therefore only one: have the markets have perhaps become too optimistic? We will see it from September: i
Summer months are typically less important for the volumes that move. It will be the last four months of the year to give the answers that are now missing. Before 2026, which will be marked by the American Midterm elections.