If the theory of “Alla Wolf to the wolf” also applies in this case, then the closure of the Hormuz Strait is not talking. If … and I underline if, considering that the Parliament of Tehran (Maiji) this closure has already decided by passing the ball to Supreme Council of National Security Iranian, The only organism competent to take on the extreme choice. Until today, history has taught that Iranian threats has never followed a closure of what it is The most important Chakepooint of world trade by sea. Even in moments of stronger tension, Tehran has limited himself, to raise the bar of the danger until you hit six oil tankers in transit. But the total block has never taken place. Through Hormuz, a strait that has a width of about 33 km in its narrower point, with a navigation lane just 3 km wide, almost 20% of the global oil exports passes through the restricted stretch of sea between Oman and Iran, and the closure of the close would put the transit of about 18 million barrels per day of oil and other fuels at risk.
It is the primary route for the export of crude oil and products by Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar. 20-21% of GNL global exports (2023 data) pass through the Hormuz Strait-especially the shipments from Qatar (81 million tons) and by the United Arab Emirates-without alternative routes to be available.
Through the Strait of Hormuz transition every year among the 50 000 and 55 000 ships (excluding warships), over 60 % are tanker and methane ships (oil and GNL), about 20% are represented by cargo ships and containers. The daily transit average exceeds 100 ships.
As mentioned, it Strait of Hormuz It has never been formally closed international navigation, but is often the subject of Strategic threats by Iran: this happened in particular in the Eighties: during the “oil warfare” (part of the Iran-Iraq war); Tehran has therefore threatened to block the Strait over the years 2011–2012, 2018, 2019 In response to US sanctions or pressures, but without ever implementing a formal closure.
Three ships – two in 2023 and one last year – were also seized by Iran near or inside the Hormuz Strait.
Over 1,000 commercial ships have been the subject of Cyber Attacks and GPS interference since the beginning of the bag between Israel and Iran last week.
But today even the coastal batteries of Iran could fall into chaos maritime trafficking in chaos. The short and medium-range missiles of Iran would be able to hit oil infrastructure platforms, oil pipelines in the strait, or even attacking commercial ships, while the surface-surface missiles could target oil tankers or ports along the gulf. Air attacks with planes or drones could deactivate navigation or radar equipment in the main maritime ports of the region.
And Hormuz has no alternatives.
Because it is difficult to close it
Three good reasons why the closing of Hormuz would return against Iran creating the premises for a planetary crisis.
- Most (or 90%) of the discounted energy exports of Iran, subject to penalties, are intended for China. In addition, more than half of all energy exports that pass through the strait – be they Iranian or not – are directed to China which is the largest worldwide of hydrocarbons. A possible naval closure would be very difficult to keep under the pressure of Beijing, the main World Greggio Greggio buyer. And it is difficult to hypothesize an open tightly open only to ships intended for the People’s Republic of China.
- The second great economy that looks with strong apprehension in Hormuz is the Indian one: about 40% of oil and over 50% of the liquefied natural gas (GNL) which matters goes from this route. Qatar alone represents about 80% of the Indian imports of GNL, followed by a significant share from the United Arab Emirates – and both countries depend on the Strait for shipments
- A closure would make an escalation inevitable also considering the presence of the fifth fleet of the United States, based in Bahrain, in charge of the protection of commercial traffic in the area.
Analysts openly speak of a global crisis with oil prices that could take over $ 150 per barrel in the event of a closure and with an involvement of all the great powers in the Iranian crisis.
For now, it is difficult to analyze the consequences on trafficking of merchant ships. Many shipowners also in front of increases in continuous revision and already greater than 200% of war risk policies, have adopted positions of prudence, slowing down the travels of their ships with destination the Gulf. But after the bombing he uses everything could change quickly and insurance premiums are constantly updated and defined on a case -by -case basis.
The cost of the bunker is also growing, or the fuel of the ships, while a first depressive effect can be seen on the level of the Noli containers. On the other hand, considering that for their Emirates commercial exchange and in part Saudi Arabia depend on Hormuz a prolonged crisis of the Strait would be improper.
For now, even according to the international organization, the reduction of traffic through Hormuz is marginal and there are few ships that have given up despite the extra costs for scheduled trips.