France votes, Macron collapses and Le Pen soars. Here are the exit polls

2024-06-30T20:45:37+02:00 France, the exit polls There France went to the polls again on a decisive day for the future of the national political landscape. Today, over 49 million citizens have been called to participate in …

France votes, Macron collapses and Le Pen soars. Here are the exit polls

France, the exit polls

There France went to the polls again on a decisive day for the future of the national political landscape. Today, over 49 million citizens have been called to participate in legislative elections, following the political turning point caused by the debacle at the European elections and the dissolution of the National Assembly. From 8am to 8pm, the polls remained open to allow the French to express their political will and choose who will lead the country in the coming years.

The exit polls reveal a well-defined political context:

  • The National Rally by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, together with a piece from Les Repubblicains by Eric Ciotti: 34.20%
  • New Popular Front of Mélenchon and the United Left: 29.10%
  • Ensemble (macronians): 21.50%.
  • republicans: 10%

France, the estimate of seats

What matters, obviously, is the estimate of seats even if the double-round single-member system makes this analysis very difficult.

According to the Elabe institute, however, i 557 seats in parliament should be distributed like this:

  • National Rally: 260-310 seats
  • Popular Front: 115-145 seats
  • Ensemble!: 90-120 seats
  • Lr, other right-wing parties: 30-50 seats
  • Others: 13-21 seats

Other institutes have slightly different estimates. For Ipsos RN it would be around 230-280, while for Ifop it would be between 240 and 270 seats.


Communist leader defeated by Le Penists

The first surprise blow came from the 20th constituency in the North of France where Fabien Roussel, leader of the Communists, who are part of the Popular Front, was defeated by Guillaume Florquin (RN) who was elected with 50.51% of the votes.


Mélenchon: “Undeniable defeat for Macron”

Jean-Luc Melenchonleader of La France Insoumise speaks of a “heavy and undeniable defeat” for Emmanuel Macron. “The president thought he was closing universal suffrage again in the suffocating choice that many do not want, him or the Rassemblement National – he says, as reported by Bfmtv – A mass vote has thwarted the trap set for the country”.

However, Mélenchon said that in the second round, “according to our principles, we will not allow the RN to win anywhere.” This means that “in the event that” the RN “comes first and we come third, we will withdraw our candidacy. In any case, our instructions are simple, direct and clear: not one vote, not one seat more for the RN.”

On the same wavelength too Raphael Glucksmanleader of the Place Publique: “We will support the candidate who can beat the Rassemblement National”. “This evening we are facing history – he said – There is no doubt. We will support the candidate who can beat the Rn, regardless of the differences”. For Glucksmann, “we need to form a block, we need a democratic vote and we need to prevent the France to sink”.


The Republicans give no indications for the runoff

THE Republicans (LR) have decided not to give any voting indications in the second round. According to initial estimates, LR would have obtained 10% of the votes. Faced with the observation that “Macronism is dead”, the Gaullist leadership made it known that “where we are not present in the second round, considering that the voters are free to make their own choice, we do not give any national instructions and let the French people express themselves according to their conscience.” It is likely that most of the votes will end up in Marine Le Pen’s RN.


Socialists: “We will withdraw our candidates”

“We will withdraw our candidates as soon as there is a risk of their victory Rassemblement National“, said the secretary of the French Socialist Party, Olivier Faure. “It is a historic achievement. For the first time the far right can govern.”


Marine Le Pen: “Macron cancelled”

Le Pen was elected in the first round.


Macron: “High turnout, desire to clarify”

Emmanuel Macron is said to have said that the high turnout recorded in the early legislative elections shows that there is a will to “clarify the political situation”.

The president then called for “a large democratic and republican bloc” against the Rassemblement National. “The time has come for a large, clearly democratic and republican bloc for the second round,” said the president of the Republic. “The high turnout in the first round testifies to the importance of this vote for all our compatriots and the desire to clarify the political situation that forces us to choose.”


Very high turnout

L’turnout estimated at 8pm it is 69.5%, such a high rate has not been recorded since 1981. In 2022, for example, only 47.51% of voters participated in the first round of the legislative elections.


France called to vote

Today’s vote represents the barometer of a deeply polarized country. The Rassemblement National, which under the leadership of Jordan Bardella has gained growing consensus, could deal a serious blow to the traditional alternation of power in France. A possible victory for the far-right party would impose “political cohabitation” between the president Emmanuel Macron and a prime minister belonging to an opposing camp.

During the electoral campaign, concerns about a possible success of the RN found space in the media and in public opinion. Bardella, with a touch of irony, addressed these concerns, promising a direct confrontation with the institutions that, according to him, would be little inclined to change. The climate of tension is not new in French politics, and the left, grouped under the banner of the Nouveau Front Populairehas positioned itself as the antagonist of the right, attempting to catalyze discontent and organize a form of resistance that could manifest itself through protests and demonstrations.