A handful of days before the vote for the US presidential electionswhile all the main newspapers talk about balance and uncertainty, some signals can tip (and even a lot) the electoral balance towards Donald Trump.
Let’s see which ones:
1 – The numbers
2 – Communication
On a communicative level, the tycoon’s success and his leadership towards these presidential elections are really difficult to dispute. Online, ha impressive numbers: on Tiktok, a social network that Trump has in the past threatened to close, he practically doubled Kamala Harris (12.6 million followers against the 6.5 of the Democratic candidate). On Instagram 27 million against 18. It’s true, elections are not won on social media, but even offline Donald manages to create catchphrases by riding on the communication errors of the Dems: Biden says that Trump voters are rubbish? He has a garbage truck branded and gets on it, driving around Green Bay. Kamala? Not received.
3 – The grit and charm of the tycoon
It is undeniable that one of the strengths of Trump’s campaign and his growing consensus is his charisma and ability to convert and capitalize on episodes that were unfavorable to him on occasions to make people talk about themselves. The most iconic moment of this electoral campaign, which will go down in history, is that of a candidate who miraculously survived an attack by a few centimeters, who gets up dripping blood from one ear, distances himself from the security and raises his fist to the sky and incites the crowd. shouting “Fight! Fight! Fight!”. As if to say “you almost killed me, but you didn’t do anything to me”. In short, it takes guts. And Donald Trump has it.
4 – The dem’s ineptitude
THE Democrats they faced this electoral campaign with one incomprehensible passivity. First they legitimized the re-nomination of Joe Biden, clearly and visibly not capable of undertaking a second term. Subsequently, probably aware of the mistake they had made, they did not focus on a strong and prominent candidacy (perhaps because none of the top players within the party wanted to take the risk of playing for the White House in a handful of months and with the ground already seriously compromised by Sleepy Joe). Kamala, more than a strong and credible candidate, has always given the sensation of being the sacrificial lamb.
5 – The heterogeneity of its voters
Trump is certainly loved and hated. But it is transverse: it reaches all segments of the population and, although as per republican tradition it will not make inroads on the west coast, it is not only liked by the classic elephant voters. He is adored by Latinos (who could tip the scales in Nevada and Arizona), he is widespread on all religions and, despite his positions on Israel, even a fair share of Muslims will vote for him.
6 – Harris’ inadequacy
Why Kamala? Is this really the best card the Dems could play after Biden’s withdrawal? Going back to point 4, probably not. According to polls by Daily Mail, USA Today and Suffolk University, you have to go back decades to find a vice president with an approval rating as low as Harris’s: in 2021 her approval rating as vice president was at 28%. Not even Dick Cheney, Bush’s vice president, had gone that low.
In short, Kamala he disappointed as vice president and a reflection on the candidacy would have been physiological, but it did not happen because the election train was already underway when Joe Biden got off. Will the lukewarm endorsements from Obama and his wife be enough, once the hype of the first weeks after Biden’s resignation is over? It seems not.
7 – The third wheel: Jill Stein
To further break the eggs in the dem basket there is Jill Stein: 74 years old, with radical positions, pro-Palestinian, leader of the Greens. Obviously, his run for the White House will be limited to reaching a few percentage points. The problem for the Dems is one and only one: they don’t steal those percentage points from the tycoon, but from Kamala Harris. An example above all: the Democrat had to win the votes of the Islamic community, but her Christian Democratic positions on the Israeli-Palestinian issue caused her approval rating to plummet, pushing many Muslims to vote for Jill Stein. The polls are merciless: the green candidate is currently the first choice for the Islamic community. Preferences that would be very useful to Kamala Harris in the swing states, but which are fading.
8 – The faithful squire: Elon Musk
In the race for the White House, in recent weeks Trump has been able to count on the support of the richest man in the world, Elon Musk. The owner of Tesla and SpaceX, as we know, is aligned with Trump and has guaranteed him total support, not only for economic interests, but also ideological ones. Thus Musk in recent days in Pittsburgh: “Dramatically increasing my risk of being assassinated and engaging in politics is not what I want to do, but the stakes are so high that I feel I have no choice but to do it.” Certainly, this synergy could translate into excellent business for Musk (with Trump having already assured him a place in his cabinet in the event of victory), but it seems that there really is an entente cordiale on the part of the tycoon that goes beyond the mere economic aspect . After all, Elon is a great liberal who has been fighting for free speech and against woke movements and other cultural abominations for years, just like Trump.
9 – The perfect deputy: JD Vance
The marathon fetishists of the American elections who have seen the debate of the vice-presidential candidates will certainly have noticed the competence and grace of JD Vance: Trump’s number two, painted on the eve as a reactionary and reactionary monster, is standing out in this electoral campaign as a balanced and moderate speaker. To such an extent that on several occasions Trump put his foot down, almost as if he wanted to underline that he was the protagonist. Tim Waltz, Kamala Harris’ designated deputy, is of a completely different order. Chosen for his dialectic and his experience, he proved to be very awkward in his speeches and was outclassed by Vance during the debate.
10 – He has already won the presidential elections
Trump has already been president, winning elections in which he was considered a goner. And he risked winning again in 2020 despite the Covid pandemic which obviously compromised his electoral path. He has conducted this electoral campaign, at least until today, in an excellent manner, often lacking in content but building an ever-growing and credible image in the eyes of the communities he wants to conquer. The nonchalance with which he moves is undeniable compared to Harris’ composure and masked shyness. Security and self-referentiality are two characteristics that the average American voter has always loved. Trump’s experience could be another useful piece to help him return to the White House.
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