After a first, initial bewilderment, many economic analysts are examining the prospects of the frantic dice policy promised by Donald Trump And then reasonably suspended, except for China. A policy that, regardless of any future developments, aims Some totally unattainable objectivesunless the economic development of the entire planet is back over sixty years.
Among the declared objectives there is to bring to the States for a large part of that manufacture which, during the process of constant integration of the world economy -the much mistreated globalization, which “incidentally” has allowed some billions of individuals to get out of absolute poverty -, has greatly reduced to many sectors of the American industry.
In this sense, the economist Stephen Miran, considered The ideologue of the dutiesIn an intervention published on the official website of the White House, he said that “President Trump has promised to reconstruct our industrial base shattered and to pursue commercial agreements that first put workers and American companies in the first place”.
Now, all this is part of an economic system that presents A very low unemployment rate – a physiological 4%-; An economic system characterized by two fundamental elements: high remuneration and very strong prevalence of the sectors related to services, as well as it has been happening for some time in all advanced economies.
In practice, the American government would like to convince many its fellow citizens to remove the classic and well -paid white collars to wear the much more uncomfortable blue suits. However, there are some elements that make it very difficult, if not impossible this sort of nostalgic return to the past. In particular, most of the assets made abroad – we think of Nike, which are produced in China, Vietnam and Indonesia – use labor labor with low cost, in the field of cultures that still accept production rhythms even conceivable in the West.
Therefore, the New Deal Manufacturing Evoked by the Tycoon councilors, admitted and not granted that it is concretely achievable, it would determine a significant increase in prices (it has been estimated that the aforementioned Nike made entirely in the US would cost the double and the latest model of iPhone (in this case there has been a healthy reverse, exempting many components produced abroad) over 50% more) of most of the goods concerned, causing consequently. growth of inflation – that Trump himself has sworn to defeat – and loss of the purchasing power of American citizens.
For this reason, I believe that, after the emotional flame that has shocked governments and markets, forcing Trump to reverse, The almighty party of reality He will recall everyone to the order, including catastrophists.
A further push in this sense we are sure that our pragmatic premier will give it, today, bringing the formula “zero for zero duties” to the gift. A reasonable proposal for reasonable cooperation. We will see.
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