The specter of war is once again hovering pressingly over Iran. American President Donald Trump, statement after statement, seems less and less optimistic about a possible agreement and is once again threatening attacks. “The options are: an agreement or carpet bombing”, warned the president, saying he was “not happy” with the measures put on the table by Iran in the latest proposal. And the nervousness is also vented on Europe, “guilty” of not helping enough and “punished” with duties and, in the case of Germany, with the withdrawal of American contingents. We understand better what is happening.
Iran’s proposal
Iran has launched a new 14-point proposal, offering to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in parallel with the lifting of the US blockade; talks on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief; Washington’s recognition of Iran’s right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. According to sources cited by Axios, only after reaching an agreement would negotiations begin in an attempt to find an agreement on nuclear power.
The US response
According to Trump, the proposal is “progress”, but Tehran “is asking for things that I cannot accept. I’m not sure they will ever get” where the United States wants. “I will review the plan that Iran just sent us shortly, but I can’t imagine that it will be acceptable,” he later said on Truth. “I can’t imagine it’s acceptable, since they still haven’t paid a high enough price for what they’ve done to humanity and the world over the last 47 years,” he highlighted.
American plans for possible “short and effective” attacks have already been presented to Trump. All that’s needed to trigger them is his green light. “From a human point of view I wouldn’t want to, but bombing is an option,” he explained.
Counter move
The pessimism that emerges from his words suggests that the American posture could change shortly with the abandonment, at least temporarily, of the diplomatic path. Tehran is well aware that the risk of a resumption of fighting is high. A senior Iranian official has warned that a return to war with the United States is likely.”
According to rumors, Tehran is using the truce to recover weapons hidden underground. The Islamic Republic has also been proactively reducing oil production for days to avoid a storage crisis that the US is banking on with the blockade of its ports. Preventing Iran from moving oil – this is Washington’s idea – will put pressure on its production and cause it to “explode”, further weakening Iran’s negotiating position. However, the buffer measures that Tehran is implementing – according to observers studied for years and probably underestimated by the United States – aim precisely to circumvent this problem, giving the country more time.