“In Naples we have a national emergency, the dangerous scenarios indicate the probability of the opening of eruptive mouths in the Flegrei fields”. Fabio Florindo, president of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, explained it, audited today on Wednesday 2 July 2025 by the Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry on hydrogeological and seismic risk.
The president of the Ingv showed the commission of the maps “developed with two different systems – he said – that they broadcast the same scenario. The most critical area, to be kept under observation, is that of Astron -Agnano. It is a worrying area”. In particular, “there is a 40-50% probability that falls in this area the opening of mouths with the emission of pyroclastic flows”. The intervention at minute 00:32 of the video below.
The Astron-Agnano area
The Volcano di Astroni, today a nature reserve, is a tuff ring formed in the north-western area of the plain of Agnano following at least 7 eruptions between 4,250 and 4,200 years ago, the activity was mainly explosive, from freatomagmatic to magmatic, and at least two eruptions ended with lave emission.
During the audition, Florindo recalled that the last eruption of the Flegrei fields dates back to 1538, but it is not the only worrying thing. “Beyond the pircolastical flows, the thing that worries most are the Freatic explosions, without magma, related to gas and slopes that are above the magmatic chamber. If the hot areas come into contact with a normal aquifer, real explosions take place related to contact between the hot and cold area. These freshered explosions are real explosions, that is, they launch in the air. Magma, but they can kill “explained Fabio Florindo. “The Freatic Explosions – he added – do not give a notice, they are instantaneous, while if there is a magma movement there is a notice, a few hours or days. For example, the Pisciarelli area worries me, with very high temperatures: temperatures above 140 degrees centigrade are estimated. That area, even very fractured, I understand that in historic times it has had small frenzic explosions”.
Earthquakes connected to bradisism
The situation of the Campi Flegrei is “worrying also from a seismic point of view”, explains Fabio Florindo. At the moment, recalls the president of the Ingv, the lifting in the area affected by the phenomenon of bradisism “is about 1.5 centimeters per month and we had peaks, after a February crisis, 3 centimeters per month. From what we have seen, until the lifting continues we will have seismic shocks”. “The events – adds Florindo – are proportional to the busty structures, to the geology of the place, and, from the models made, we can hardly go beyond a magnitude 5.5. That should be the maximum limit”.
“When there are these seismic events, such as the last of magnitude 4.6, however damage to buildings accumulate, at least to those in more precarious conditions. I firmly think there is an accumulation of the damage. A magnitude 4 today, a 4.5 tomorrow, a day after tomorrow … the most damaged buildings could come down”. “Unfortunately – added Florindo – there is the accumulation of the damage. I know that there are checks in the houses, but I also know that many people refuse to have their homes control because they are afraid of being cleared. If a supporting part of the structure has been damaged, you have to monitor it by force. And this is a problem”.
Like a huge mocha, under Naples: lava and water explain the earthquakes of the Flegrei Campi