2024 is about to be remembered as the hottest year ever recorded: this was announced by the world climate agency in the new report on the global climate anomaly (State of Climate, in PDF) presented at the opening of COP29. Average global temperatures have temporarily crossed the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, an alarming sign that underlines the growing climate crisis. This record was impacted by both rising greenhouse gases and a strong El Niño event, leading to an acceleration of the effects of climate change around the world.
- The concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere continues to grow at an alarming rate. This increase is mainly caused by human activities, such as the use of fossil fuels and deforestation. Greenhouse gases trap heat in the atmosphere, causing global temperatures to gradually rise. Levels of CO₂, methane and nitrous oxide reached historic records in 2023 and continue to rise in 2024.
- A strong El Niño phenomenon has intensified global warming, contributing to an acceleration of temperatures. Scientists explain that the El Niño event, a periodically occurring climate phenomenon, increases ocean temperatures, significantly influencing the Earth’s climate.
- Global glaciers have lost a volume of water equivalent to about five times the Dead Sea, with a record annual decrease of 1.2 meters of water equivalent in 2023.
- Antarctic and Arctic sea ice are below average in 2024, with record highs and lows of reduced extent.
- The rate of sea level rise has more than doubled, from 2.13 mm per year (1993-2002) to 4.77 mm per year (2014-2023).
- 2023 was the driest year for rivers, with severe river flow shortages around the world.
The critical threshold, what it means to exceed 1.5 degrees
The temporary exceeding of the 1.5°C threshold is relevant news for climate scientists, as this limit has been established as a point of no return to avoid devastating effects on the planet. The 2015 Paris Agreement set the goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C, ideally aiming for 1.5°C. However, as the UN climate agency points out, exceeding this threshold means moving closer to a future in which extreme climate events will become even more frequent and intense.
- extreme heat waves: 2024 saw an unprecedented number of heat waves in different parts of the world, with record temperatures recorded in Europe, North America and Asia;
- extreme climate events: hurricanes, storms and floods have become more frequent and destructive due to the rise in sea temperatures which fuels the power of these events with significant damage on a human, economic and environmental level; Drought and extreme events have reduced cereal production, causing food insecurity in many regions.
- accelerated melting of glaciers, contributing to sea level rise and threatening coastal communities in island areas, while low-lying coasts risk being submerged.
The words of climate experts are clear: time to act is running out. If greenhouse gas emissions are not drastically reduced, the planet could stably surpass the 1.5°C threshold in the coming years. Scientists continue to emphasize that every fraction of a degree counts in limiting the damage caused by climate change.
What does this mean for the future
2024 is a year that will make climate history. Exceeding the 1.5°C threshold is a wake-up call that requires immediate and concrete responses. If the current situation does not change, global warming will lead to increasingly extreme climate conditions. However, it is not too late to take action. There are multiple strategies to reduce emissions, such as switching to renewable energy sources, improving energy efficiency, and reducing deforestation.
Governments, businesses and citizens have a crucial role in the fight against climate change. Only with a collective and global effort will it be possible to avoid the most catastrophic consequences for future generations.
Not just bad news
On the day in which the new global climate conference (COP29) opens, we can take stock of an important result of COP28, namely the ambitious goal of tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030. An upcoming Joint publication between WMO, IRENA and Copernicus will examine changes in four key energy indicators (wind, solar, hydro and energy demand) for 2023 compared to the reference period 1991–2020.
Some data shows the impact of climate conditions: for example, South America saw a 3.9% increase in PV capacity factor, attributed to drier and hotter conditions due to El Niño, an increase of around 3, 5 TWh/year of energy production. In East Asia, wind power grew 5.4%, increasing 60 TWh of annual generation.