The excise duty cut’s days are numbered. The decree launched by the government to combat the high cost of fuel has been in force since 19 March and will cease to have effect on 8 April, after the Easter holidays, unless further extended. The intervention reduced taxes on petrol and diesel by 24.4 cents, while those on LPG fell by 12 cents. The overall cost of the package of measures, which also includes tax credits for road transport and fishing, is equal to 527.4 million. The rising cost of oil did not help, and ended up sterilizing – at least in part – the executive’s efforts to lower excise duties.
The countdown expires in 15 days, a full tank could cost 12 euros more
Based on data collected by the Ministry of Business, the average price for petrol in self-service mode stands at 1.741 euros per litre, while for diesel it is 2.036 euros. On the motorway network, however, green is expensive 1,804 euro and diesel 2,094 euro (data updated at 8am on 25 March). When the decree expires, in 15 days, it will get even worse. Assuming a stable cost of the raw material, without the discount on excise duties, petrol would skyrocket to 1,980 euros, while diesel to 2,265 euros. A 50 liter tank of diesel would cost 12.20 euros more than today. The simulation was done assuming stable raw material prices; any fluctuations in oil could amplify the impact of the increases, but also attenuate it.
The hypothesis of an extension (not a given)
In reality there is already talk of an extension but it is not a given given the cost of the intervention. The hypothesis of extending the discount on excise duties “will be evaluated by the entire government overall with respect to the overall picture” said Energy Minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin. On the possibility that there will be a new energy package at the next council of ministers, the minister was vague: “We will carry out the evaluations. We are waiting for the report that the bodies involved in this evaluation will give us”.