The rule of every negotiation is: never make downward offers before the negotiation really gets underway. Vladimir Putin he knows it and today, during the end-of-year conference, between one quote from Silvio Berlusconi and another, he threw the ball back into the Ukrainian camp with a sort of all-in. After yesterday Volodymyr Zelensky had made it clear that he was ready to renounce Crimea and Donbass, Moscow says it is ready to negotiate with Kiev but only when the “legitimate president” is re-elected. So no table with Zelensky unless he wins the favor of the people.
And here comes the first “condition” that Putin poses: the change of leadership in the enemy country. The Tsar claims to speak with “the legitimate leader” of Ukraine, even Zelensky if he wants but “only if he goes to elections and is re-elected”. “If the Ukrainian leader is illegitimate then the entire power structure is illegitimate”, explained the Tsar who wants to start from the 2022 Istanbul negotiation process, updating it “on the basis of the reality that is taking shape on the field today”.
Of course, Putin has to deal with reality. Even internal. In the almost three years of war he had to face the failure of the flash conflict, the coup by Wagner’s soldiers, the dismissal of Assad in Syria (a meeting with the former dictator was expected) and the targeted assassinations in Ukraine including the last, sensational, of General Igor Kirillov in the heart of Moscow. The Russian president has pointed the finger at intelligence for the “serious failure” to prevent these attacks, but it is a fact that Moscow is no longer as armored as it once was. Not to mention the encirclement of NATO (“they are all at war with us”) which continues to support Kiev both economically and militarily, even by sending long-range missiles.
In the end-of-year speech there was also space for the economy. Putin admitted that “sanctions create problems” but “they will not be able to kill us completely.” “The Russian economy continues to advance despite external threats,” he said. “In two years it has grown by 8 percent.” An alarming fact, however, comes from inflation which is around 9.2-9.3%.
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