We all remember the terror for a new crisis of the spread that a large slice of average, institutions and politics spread, in the summer-autumn of 2022, in view of the probable success of the center right in the elections of September 25 of that year. The spread, in the weeks of the eve, was around 220 points (a 10 -year BTP made 2.2% more than the corresponding German bund). Today the spread oscillates on 80 points: it means – in a nutshell – that public debt costs 1.4% to the state less than three years ago. Even more impression is the comparison with France: in September 2022 the spread with Italy was 160 points, while in these days it has even fallen below 10 (equal to 0.1% of performance at 10 years).
This brief summary on the trend of markets compared to Italy is significant of an important truth: with the same condition, to make the difference, in terms of reliability of a country, it is not its macroeconomic fundamental (GDP, debt and deficit) but the political stability of a government. Of course, some basic conditions are needed, such as the prudent management of public spending and revenue. But once a political coalition does not need to govern with a short -term horizon, the risk of resorting to electoral maneuvers tends to zero and the market understands it on the fly. The debt, high and is managed and, indeed, becomes very popular for its growing reliability and a good performance, even if intended, precisely because it is very sought after, to reduce yourself day after day.
France is the other side of this medal. His spread with German titles, which remained tight and aligned for years, has increased from 40 to 70 points since 2024. Its public debt, in absolute terms, at the end of 2025 is expected to 3,470 billion, against estimates of 3,081 billion of the Italian one. There are almost 400 billion more, but with a big difference that is given by the ability to absorb it by private wealth, which in Italy is abundant, in France almost non -existent. Weak growth complete the picture, accompanied by an unemployment of 7.5% against 6.3 Italian, and a worse pension situation of ours.
But all this scares even more you look at the Elysée, where President Macron has been forced, for a year now, to the cohabitation with a weak government and who does not reflect the majority that elected him in 2022, now overcome in the consensus, but without a solid alternative: extreme right and extreme left are divided by the polls making the risk of ungovernability of the country more and higher. An unstable situation that threatens to continue at least until 2027, the year of the next presidential elections. That’s why France is today the real weak point of the European Union, despite having a debt/GDP ratio (the parameter that most affects the market) by 113%, against 135% Italian.
And this is the reason why rating agencies consider Paris even more reliable in Rome (Standard & Poor’s has however reduced the distance between the two countries by two steps, now divided by only four rating levels). But if the trend of politics should confirm the stability of the Italian government against the uncertainty of the French one, the rating agencies will also react accordingly.