A result that goes even beyond predictions and risks changing the political balance in Germany. The AfD swept the regional elections in Saxony-Anhalt, winning around 44% of the vote and more than doubling the 20.8% obtained in 2021.
An unprecedented result for Alternative für Deutschland and an earthquake for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU. The Conservative Party, which five years ago had received 37.1%, has fallen to around 18%. The SPD also did poorly, stuck at around 9%.
What makes the vote even more significant is the turnout, which reached around 80%, a record level for the Land.
Can the AfD really govern?
This is the question that has dominated German politics since this morning. The AfD’s success is enormous, but it may not be enough to hand Ulrich Siegmund the leadership of Saxony-Anhalt.
The projections in fact, they give the party around 39 seats out of a Landtag of 83: a strength never seen before, but still lower than the absolute majority.
It therefore becomes decisive what the other parties do. CDU, SPD, Greens and Linke continue to exclude agreements with the AfD through the so-called Brandmauer, the “fire wall” built by German politics to prevent the far right from coming to government.
The variable is the BSW, the party founded by Sahra Wagenknecht, which fluctuates precisely around the 5% threshold. The BSW has not ruled out collaboration with the AfD on individual measures, although so far without offering an explicit willingness to form a government together. If Siegmund managed to find the necessary numbers, a historic scenario would still open up: the AfD would come to the helm of a German state for the first time.
“We have made history,” Siegmund claimed after the vote. For Alice Weidel, the result represents a “clear mandate to govern”. The problem is understanding with whom.
The collapse of the CDU is a problem for Merz
The most politically weighty data for Berlin, however, could be that of the CDU. In 2021 the party had obtained 37.1%. Now he has lost about half of his support.
Remigration, civic guards and separate classes for disabled people: the AfD’s plan for Germany
It is a defeat that inevitably hits Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The regional vote in fact takes on a national dimension: the AfD is no longer just an East German protest force, but an increasingly direct competitor of the Christian Democrats.
Salvini celebrates, Tajani: “Bad news”
The German earthquake also arrives immediately in Italy and divides the majority. Matteo Salvini openly celebrates: “Congratulations to his friend Alice Weidel and to the entire AfD for the triumph in Saxony-Anhalt. A sensational success, which highlights the strong demand for change, security and work”. For the leader of the League, the message that came from the polls is simple: “Another Europe is possible”.
Roberto Vannacci also rejoices. “Europe is changing”, wrote the leader of Futuro Nazionale commenting on the AfD result. Then the attack against the German Chancellor: “Merz has an ulcer”. And the conclusion: “No sleep.”
The position of the other deputy prime minister, Antonio Tajani, is diametrically opposed. For the Foreign Minister, the AfD’s statement is “bad news” because it concerns “a political force antithetical to the liberal and Western values in which Forza Italia recognizes itself”. Tajani therefore invites pro-European forces to implement political initiatives to prevent what he defines as a “populist and fanatical drift” from spreading to the rest of Europe.