More than a victory, a sigh of relief. This is what half of Europe must have thought this morning reading the definitive results of the elections in Germany. The brutal synthesis is: the AFD is bang, the only one to grow consistently in the votes (almost doubled), but the health cordon will not allow it to govern. Therefore space to Friedrich Merzthe winner with 28.5% of the votes, but who will be forced to bring back to the government one or two of the three parties responsible for the disaster in recent years: the SPD Of Olaf Scholzwho at least had the good heart to get out after the electoral shoulder strap (16.4%, the worst result of all time) and perhaps i Greenalso in crisis of consensus and accused of being responsible for the death of the German automotive sector.
Enormous turnout
The election saw an unprecedented turnout, the highest since Germany reunited in 1990, with a participation rate of 84%signal of a profound popular involvement and a marked interest in the future fate of the nation.
Which government?
To expand the parliamentary base, the green could be involved, by voting on the alliance called “Kenya”but it will be more complicated to build a solid government and above all quickly. The Germans used to start long negotiations and the more the parties are interested and the more they last: Merz has promised to form an operational executive “at the latest by Easter”. But if he will also have to involve the Greens, it will be difficult to keep the promise.
The elections in synthesis
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Merz’s problems
However, there are three factors to consider. First: Merz wonbut not as they hoped inside the CDU/CSU. Some supporters of the Cancelliere candidate also admit it. The hope was to overcome the psychological threshold of 30% but the union stopped at 28.5% making it more complicated, in terms of parliamentary numbers, navigation.
Second: it is not said that the SPD makes an agreement with the CDU. A piece of the Social Democrats would like to go to the opposition to recover the lost consensus. The last years of Scholz government have been dramatic for the polls and land in a large Koalition from the second party risks being the worst of the nightmares: do not enjoy the advantages of the opposition and not even have the knife on the handle in the government offices . Saskia Esken He has already made it known that the SPD will not fall “in the trap” of an agreement at all costs with the CDU and Merz looks with suspicion to the desire of the Social Democrats to make their members vote for a possible participation in the executive. To divide the two parties there is above all the migratory policythe battle horse of the AFD. Merz had placed as a condition in the election campaign a drastic change of migratory policies, with the rejection of illegal migrants to borders. And the SPD, despite having hardened its positions on expulsions, is not said that it wants to go until the closure of all borders.
Third: the Greens do not enjoy great sympathies in the Union. On the contrary. The leader of the Csuthe Bavarian party, does not want to know to go to the government with the Habeck party.
The collapse of the liberals
The political panorama also highlights the difficulties of the minor parties and liberal currents. There FDPfor example, she was unable to reach the 5% threshold for entry into the Bundestag, marking a critical moment for German liberalism and pushing its main exponents, Christian Lindner And Wolfgang Kubickito announce their retreat from political life. After all, it was precisely the FDP that caused the fall of the Scholz government and, apparently, paid a pledge.