In ten days it is the third time (and last) that I write about the Asteroid 2024 Y24, this time to laugh and to think about it. It has gone from 1% of the chances of the land to 3% until zero. But now the problem would be another, as we read in many titles of agencies and newspapers: “Instead, the danger that the moon will hit”. Eh? Ok, let’s go in order.
First of all, I don’t know if this has confirmed or not the theory of the film “Don’t look up”, where a reforestity humanity continues to pretend nothing while an enormous asteroid (other than 50 meters of 2024 y24) is about to hit the earth, visible in the increasingly larger sky and that would have led to the infection of human life. Certainly people did not go to the strips, just as the earth will not file us, not even 2024 y24. So much noise for nothing, but nobody has even heard the noise. But they were conjectures, drawn probability, even the possible band of areas that would have struck if it had struck us on December 22, 2032: Pacifico, Asia, China, but if we do not even know at what point it would enter the atmosphere, considering that we did not even know if it would have affected our planet or not?
China was already preparing for countermeasures (not even a week ago), despite the experts minimized the risk. From 3% we passed to 0,0001%, if it was a bitcoit would have been that of Fabrizio Corona (I am exaggerating, that of Corona lasted less than an hour and I would not have even invested a penny). However, there are those who are not yet convinced, or rather are convinced but, like Luca Conversi, head of the coordination center of objects close to the land of ASA, says that “it is still early to talk about zero risk: to date we are at a probability of impact of 1 out of 60000”. But one out of sixty thousand is zero interest. It is the same probability of dying from a puncture of bees, but much more than dying from an accidental gunshot (1 out of 5981, while not accidental 1 out of 300), or to die drowned (1 out of 1073), or to die falling (1 out of 184) or road accident (1 out of 85). Yet we leave the same of the house without thinking about a loose bullet, we take the car without thinking that we will make an accident, we drive out an bee without thinking that it could kill us.
However, despite this, our perception of probability is very distorted. Millions of lottery tickets are sold every year because people think about the probability of winning the prize that will change their lives, which are one over eleven million, and when they buy that ticket they believe it, “Why not me?”. But if they rain outside they take the umbrella and go out safely, they don’t think that there is a probability of eighty thousand of being affected by lightning and are closed at home for fear, thinking “why not me?”.
Our brain cannot evaluate the real meaning of probability, in many fields.
After all, NASA and space agencies have done their work, but 2024 Y24 was irresistible to talk about it as danger. Even now that the chances are below zero, there is “danger” that affects the moon. A really great danger. There is a risk that you will ruin it by adding a crater.