The expensive energy could continue to empty the pockets of Italians even in 2027, costing as much as 250 euros per family. In the most unfavorable scenario developed by the Confcommercio research office, with the price of Brent oil stable at 140 dollars a barrel, inflation could reach well over 3%. The alarm emerges from the analysis carried out by Confcommercio together with the CER on the consequences of the new surge in energy prices. A flare-up that arrives when inflation has already started to run again.
Italy most at risk
The problem is also structural. In 2025, 43.7% of Italian electricity was produced using gas, compared to 18.2% in Spain, 17.6% in Germany and just 3.2% in France. When gas prices rise, therefore, the price of Italian electricity tends to be affected more quickly. The gap is already evident. In September electricity in Italy costs 65.3 euros per megawatt hour more than in Germany, 67.2 euros more than Spain and 69.4 euros more than France.
And the blow would not only affect families. In the worst case scenario, Confcommercio also estimates a loss of three tenths of GDP, which would bring growth in 2027 to 0.6%. For commerce, tourism and catering, meanwhile, the increase in electricity bills could already exceed one billion euros in the second half of 2026. The risk is therefore that the shock starting from energy will transfer first to prices and then, through the loss of purchasing power, to consumption and growth.
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