Emmanuel Macron has won his electoral gamble. His strategy, which was openly anti-Le Pen, worked, the withdrawals worked, the republican front formed precisely to stem the rise to power of the Rassemblement National worked. Marine Le Pen. In the end, it went exactly as the French president would have wanted it to: the voters respected the indications of their respective political families, embracing the line of “everyone except Rn”, and thus giving an unexpected bitter pill to swallow for the duo. The Pen-Bardellawho was already looking forward to a fiery cohabitation with Macron.
But no. The young president of Rn will have to give up (at least for the moment) his dreams of glory, and his party, after a disappointing third place, the possibility of governing. These are the only certainties of a France literally dividedwith a National Assembly divided into three blocs that complicate, and not a little, the formation of a new government. And now comes the best part. Because if it is true that with his strategy Macron has managed to prevent the formation of a government shifted to the right, rejecting the so-called “black wave”, it is not certain that he will now be able to do the same with the red jumblegathered for the occasion under the single banner of the Nouveau Front Populaire, which welcomes within it all possible declinations of gauche: socialists, communists, greens, radicals, and so on and so forth.
In short, a front so heterogeneous that it risks giving the French president a lot of headaches in the weeks to come. So, what in these hours is seen as an authentic masterpiece of political tactics, and in fact it was, at least considering the short term and with a view to ousting Rn from the government, could instead turn out to be a dangerous boomerang in the medium-long term.
According to the results of the legislative elections, in fact, Macron now has two options: to bow to the variegated left of the new popular front, as loudly demanded by the leader of France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchonthe first force of the coalition by number of seats in the nascent National Assembly, or try to split the Nouveau Front Populaire, “screw” Melenchon and seek an agreement with the other forces of the left coalition. In the latter case, a possible “all in” with only Le Pen and Melenchon outside, would risk throwing the country into chaos ungovernabilityor in any case to further radicalize the French vote in view of the next presidential elections scheduled for 2027.
In the first case, however, France would suddenly find itself led by a somewhat reassuring far-left executive governed by forces (above all France Insoumise) that are openly anti-Western and anti-Semitic. Which would inevitably end up undermining the French and European balances, and paving the way for Marine Le Pen in the race for the Elysée.
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