Three governments that have taken turns in the last year alone, a deficit that stands at 6.1% of GDP, public debt that has broken through to 3,228 billion euros and a spread compared to German Bunds that has reached 90 basis points, the maximum level since 2010, even higher than that of the government bonds of Greece, a country considered financially “the sick man of Europe”.
Stop for a moment and try to imagine if, instead of Monsieur Macron’s France, it was Italy that found itself in a situation of such political and financial instability. In all likelihood, the very rigorous European hawks would not have hesitated for an instant to put us on the grill, while at the same time dispensing annoying little lessons in good administration of public money seasoned with continuous calls for austerity. We already seem to see them in the headlines in authoritative newspapers across half of Europe, vehemently lashing out against the Italian political class, as always accustomed to waste and mismanagement of public affairs.
The usual Italians, cheerful, spendthrift and irresponsible, and, as such, to be subjected to the maniacal control of European bureaucrats and to stringent community constraints. This is exactly how things would have gone, no need to beat around the bush. To prove this, some very simple reminders would be enough to realize the evident disparity in treatment that the European institutions have reserved for the various member states over time. We remember well the repeated warnings of the European commissioners against Italy, like those of the Frenchman Pierre MoscoviciCommissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs in the Commission led by Luxembourg Jean-Claude Junckeralways ready to beat us for having exceeded the deficit/GDP ratio by a few tenths of a percentage. Who knows what the upright Moscovici would say today about his France, whose deficit, as mentioned, is equal to over 6% (more than 3%!)? Not to mention the fact that Italy, the target of European hawks, including the post-spread emergency that led to the fall of the last Berlusconi government, could count on very broad parliamentary support.
However, the current situation in France is very different: Emmanuel Macron’s reformist center has melted like snow in the sun, and the electoral system is increasingly polarizing towards more extreme forces, both from the right and the left. And the motion of no confidence against Barnier, which passed with 331 votes (289 would have been enough), is proof of this. To the financial instability dictated by a public debt now out of control, there is also political and institutional instability, which literally throws France into chaos. Much more so than Italy was at the time, subjected to the horse-like care of the technical government led by Mario Monti.
And to think that, just two years ago, in the aftermath of the settlement at Palazzo Chigi of Giorgia Meloniprogressive newspapers from all over Europe (and beyond), predicted the advent of a disastrous financial crisis for Italy due to the joint explosion of spreads and public debt.