Those who retire today and those who retire tomorrow risk experiencing two very different realities. This is stated in a focus on pensions created by Confcooperative together with Censis, which compares two “typical” careers that are equal in duration and contribution continuity, but distant in time. According to the study, a person who started working in 1982 and retired in 2020 at 67 with 38 years of contributions can count on a replacement rate (i.e. the ratio between first pension check and last salary) of 81.5%. The scenario for those entering the job market today is very different: a worker who started in 2022 and retired in 2060, again at 67 and with 38 years of contributions, would see the replacement rate drop to 64.8%. In other words: almost 17 percentage points less for the same number of years worked and contributions paid.
“A 17 percentage point cut on pension income compared to the last paycheck: this is the prospect that awaits those who enter the job market today,” says the president of Confcooperative Maurizio Gardini, speaking of “a real mortgage on the future” which adds up to low salaries, the spread of working poverty and the reduction of the active population. The distance between last salary and first pension, again according to the study, doubles: from 18.5% estimated for 2020 to 35.2% in 2060.
All things considered, assuming the final gross salary of around 2,000 euros per month and applying the two replacement rates mentioned, the “2020 pension” scenario is around 1,600 gross euros/month, but in the “2060 scenario” it drops below 1300 euros per month with a difference of over 330 gross euros less per month.
The picture, the analysis warns, worsens if we consider that the replacement rate decreases while the “base” on which it is calculated (wages) also remains fragile. In European comparison, Italy is in fact in 25th place for the incidence of wages on GDP: 28.9%, compared to 44.9% in Germany, 38% in France and 37.1% in Spain. A gap which, according to the report, has lasted for thirty years and has “crystallised” in a downward equilibrium.
The demographic effect
The aging of the population also weighs on the system. Between 2025 and 2050, the population between 15 and 64 years could reduce by 7.7 million units: a drop of 20.5%, from 37.3 million to 29.7 million. Fewer workers, in perspective, also means a narrower contribution base and greater pressure on the sustainability of the system.
Meanwhile, vulnerability is growing during working life. Among working people aged 18 to 64, 10.3% are at risk of poverty: approximately 2.4 million individuals. Among employed young people aged 20-29 the incidence rises to 12% (around 349 thousand people). And the social differences remain clear: families with a working-class reference person record an incidence of absolute poverty of 15.6%, while among managers, executives and employees the share drops to 2.9%. Data which, the research warns, risks translating into weaker pensions tomorrow, especially in a system destined to be increasingly based on the contributory method.