For a few days the global traffic of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) has been under pressure due to the outbreak of the war in Iran, the expansion of the conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Every day – before the war operations – around 20% of the oil moved by sea throughout the world passed through this stretch of sea that separates Tehran from the Emirates and Oman. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (the so-called pasdaran) announced that they had “total control” of the strait, and Donald Trump said that “if necessary the United States will escort all oil tankers through Hormuz”.
The strait has been effectively blocked since the beginning of the war: there are hundreds of oil tankers and gas ships stopped on both sides. No one seems to be willing to cross it. As a result, there was an immediate surge in oil and fuel prices. What could be the concrete impact on Italy? And to try to understand it better: where does the oil that our country imports from abroad come from and how important is the Middle East in supplies?
Where does oil come from in Italy?
Based on the most recent data from the Energy Union for Mobility (Unem), referring to 2025, the largest share of crude oil imported by Italy comes from African countries. In fact, 41.7% of all oil comes from there: the countries from which we import the most are Libya – from which 24.2% of the raw material comes, almost a quarter of the total -, Nigeria (5.5%), Niger (3%) and Algeria (2.9%).
If just under half of the oil imported by Italy comes from Africa, Asian countries also play an important role: 16.8% of crude oil comes from Azerbaijan, 13.1% from Kazakhstan. As regards the American continent, Rome also imports oil from the United States (9% of the total) and from Brazil (2.4%).
The weight of the Middle East
As regards the Middle East, 12.2% of Italy’s total crude oil imports come from the areas currently involved in the conflict. The two most important partners are Iraq (which provides 6.1% of the total) and Saudi Arabia (5.8%). Small shares then come from Kuwait (0.2%) and Syria (0.1%). In any case, last year the Middle East supplied Italy with more oil than Europe: in fact, only 2.7% of crude oil is imported from the Old Continent, with Norway (1.7%) and the United Kingdom (0.9%) as the main partners.
The weight of the Middle East in Italy’s oil imports appears to be decreasing: compared to 2024, our country purchased 27.1% less crude oil from this area. The most significant decreases were recorded with Kuwait (-69.5%), Iraq (-35.4%) and Saudi Arabia (-12.8%). However, an increase of 11.9% was recorded from Africa and 13.2% more from America. Brazil stands out with +122.1%, while that from Europe is also decreasing, equal to -23.7%.
What can happen
The time factor is decisive. If the war in Iran were to drag on for many weeks or months, it could widely affect the entire global economy, threatening the energy supplies of many countries around the world and fueling inflation. The fear of international analysts is that the cost of oil could return to heights that were last seen, a few years ago, with the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Even reaching over 100 dollars a barrel in the worst estimates, if the interruption of the Strait of Hormuz were to continue.
The increase in production of 206 thousand barrels of oil per day decided for the month of April by the eight member countries of OPEC+, the organization of crude oil exporting countries, to deal with the increase in prices following the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran could therefore be of little value. An increase of this kind would inevitably have repercussions on Italy too, regardless of the weight of the Middle East in our supplies. Even if our country depends less on the Middle East than we think (thanks to Africa), it could still pay the bill.