In the last 48 hours, several European governments have raised the level of alarm on the Russian threat, transforming scenarios so far confined to military planning into public messages. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned that Moscow could attempt drone or missile attacks against countries that support Ukraine, then try to present them as accidents. In France, President Emmanuel Macron brought together intelligence and political leaders, ordering a strengthening of the protection of critical infrastructures and the defense industry.
Faced with the deterioration of the international situation, we meet the chefs of the parties represented in Parliament to make the point. https://t.co/r7lO9fB6aL
— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) September 18, 2026
Estonia and Lithuania are instead updating their plans for broader crisis scenarios: Tallinn is evaluating the possible closure of the border in the event of a general Russian mobilization, while Vilnius has set up evacuation routes towards Poland. Even neutral Switzerland has raised the alert level by adapting a strategy and a new defensive policy “in response to the deteriorated security situation”.
In response to the deteriorating security situation, 🇨🇭 has three objectives: strengthen resilience, improve protection and enhance defense capabilities. The Federal Council has adopted Switzerland’s Security Policy Strategy 2026. https://t.co/VzEujnJzNr @vbs_ddps
— Swiss Federal Government (@SwissGov) September 18, 2026
The Belarusian military exercises near the Polish and Lithuanian borders and the Suwałki Corridor, as well as the recent violations of NATO airspace, contribute to making the situation more tense. It does not mean that a Russian attack is considered imminent, but it signals a substantial change: European governments are openly preparing populations and institutions for scenarios of sabotage, incursions and possible military escalation that until recently remained mostly on paper.
What’s happening
THE’Economist claims that Vladimir Putin, finding himself in a situation of growing military stalemate in Ukraine, decided to react not by seeking a compromise, but by increasing the level of conflict. According to sources close to the Kremlin cited by the weekly, the choice would have been made during the summer. In the Russian elite, writes theEconomistthe perception is growing that the simple fact of having taken so long already represents a failure, regardless of the final outcome.
In response, Moscow could try to change the situation by raising the level of the war, in Ukraine but above all through hybrid operations and sabotage against the European countries that support it. The logic attributed to Putin is that of a system in which showing weakness is more dangerous than increasing violence.
Russia can strike NATO without declaring war on it
War could therefore arrive in Europe without being declared. This is the fear that is growing at European and NATO leaders: not so much a conventional invasion of an Alliance country, but rather limited and ambiguous attacks, serious enough to cause damage but designed to leave open the question: is it really a Russian attack or an accident?
In recent months, Europe has already seen sabotage, fires, cyber operations, drone overflights and airspace violations attributed or suspected to be linked to Russia. In September, an Italian fighter on a NATO mission shot down a drone in Lithuania that had entered from Belarus and was considered potentially explosive. The alarm was formulated more clearly by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Citing undisclosed intelligence information, he said Moscow could strike countries supporting Kiev with drones or missiles, later describing the incidents as “accidental.” The goal, according to Tusk, would be to test the allies’ willingness to apply Article 5 of NATO, the principle according to which an attack against one member state is an attack against all.
Propaganda
At the same time, influence activity aimed at influencing public opinion and Western political decisions is increasing. According to the American study center Institute for the Study of War, Moscow would conduct a series of cognitive and information campaigns coordinated with the “kinetic” ones against European states. In a recently published report, the institute brings together a long series of episodes ranging from attempts to sabotage railways, fires against defense companies, cyberattacks, activities against submarine cables, violations of NATO airspace and alleged plans against executives of the European military industry.
Next to a“cognitive warfare” infrastructure would tend to influence the perceptions, will and decisions of its adversaries thanks to partnerships between Russian state media and foreign newspapers, journalism training programs financed or managed by the Russian state and the cultural centers known as “Russian House” through which Moscow exercises cultural diplomacy and, according to the interpretation of the ISW, projects its influence abroad. The goal would be much more ambitious than simply spreading propaganda on a daily basis.
In short, there are not enough signs to say that Russia is preparing to invade a NATO country in the coming weeks, but European governments are preparing for a more aggressive phase of hybrid warfare.