The Meloni government hoped for greater margins for the next budget law. Nothing to do, however. Because Istat has confirmed the 2025 deficit at 3.1% of gross domestic product (GDP). The net debt of public administrations in relation to GDP amounted to -3.1% in 2025 (it was -3.4% in 2024). The national statistics institute announced this today, confirming the data released in April.
What does this mean in practice
Pending confirmation from Eurostat expected on 21 October, this data does not bring the deficit/GDP ratio below the crucial threshold of 3% which would have given Italy the possibility of exiting the excessive deficit procedure started in 2024. Exiting the procedure would have opened up additional budget margins which could have been used for EU flexibility on energy and defense starting from the next budget law. Remaining in the procedure entails the obligation to reduce the structural deficit by 0.5 points per year.
And what happens now? Having received the data through the overall count of Eurostat (the statistical office of the European Union which is responsible for collecting, analyzing and disseminating comparable data at a European level), the EU commission will only be able to take note and confirm that Italy remains in infringement proceedings also in 2026. Therefore with much tighter economic policy constraints for the last budget maneuver of the Meloni government before the elections, to be scheduled during 2027.
Giorgetti: “We note with regret”
The comment from Giancarlo Giorgetti, Minister of Economy, was bitter: “We take note, not without regret, of the definitive data expressed by Istat on the 2025 deficit-GDP ratio. Unfortunately, Italy will not exit the infringement procedure for excessive deficit early this year, as we had hoped, but, consistently with the data already expressed in the public finance document, this could happen in 2027”.
Worsening of 355 million
Istat’s review of the 2025 deficit highlights a “worsening” of the estimate by 355 million. For 2025, it is explained, the revision “was upward for both income, 1,991 million, and expenditure, 2,346 million, with a worsening of the estimate of net debt of -355 million”.
“For revenues, the revisions are attributable to adjustments in the estimate of salable production and for own use (+1,758 million), of other current revenues (+538 million) and of capital account revenues (+536 million). These upward revisions were partly offset by the downward revisions of taxes (-794 million), in particular indirect taxes on energy, and social contributions (-47 million). The revision of current expenditure was -142 million, a summary of positive adjustments for other current expenditure of +1,271 million and negative for all other items. Capital expenditure was revised upwards (+2,488 million), mainly for investments”.
Istat revises GDP 2025 upwards, to +0.6%
In 2025 the rate of change in GDP in volume was 0.6%, 0.1 percentage points more than the estimate last March. Istat communicates this by releasing the statistics on the national economic accounts 2010-2025. Based on the new data, GDP in volume increased by 1.1% in 2024, with a positive revision of 0.3 percentage points. In 2025 the tax burden rose to 42.9% of GDP, up 0.7 percentage points compared to 2024.
Debt in 2025 revised downwards to 136.7% of GDP
The debt in 2025 is equal to 136.7% of GDP, increasing from 134.2% in 2024. This is what emerges from the data contained in the Istat note on the national economic accounts 2010-2025, which shows a downward revision of last year’s figure, compared to the previous estimate in April (137.1%). The tables show a downward adjustment also for the 2024 debt (in April it was estimated at 134.7%). The data for the previous two years has also been reduced: the 2023 figure is revised to 134% (from 133.9%), that of 2022 to 138.3% (from 138.4).
“Deficit over 3% but in line with what was expected”
Marco Osnato, president of the Finance Commission of the Chamber and economic manager of Fratelli d’Italia, declared: “The data published this morning by Istat certify that the Italian deficit in 2025 stood at 3.1% of GDP, one decimal point above the European threshold of 3%. But those who shout about exceeding the threshold forget a decisive detail: the exit from the infringement procedure is scheduled for 2027, as expressed in the public finance document, not for 2026. We are therefore perfectly in line with the trajectory set by the government, in a year marked by a very difficult international situation, between geopolitical tensions, energy increases and unstable markets. Faced with this scenario, we have made a clear choice: not to pass the crisis on to families and businesses”.
The attack of the 5 Star Movement
The 5 Star Movement takes the opportunity to attack the government. The M5s parliamentarians of the budget and finance commissions of the Chamber and Senate declared: “For the avoidance of doubt: no one here wants to celebrate the failure to reach a 2025 deficit/GDP below 3%. However, we must tell the truth: as we wanted to demonstrate, only with growth can the accounts be kept in order. Today’s Istat data certify that having undergone four years of austerity with primary surpluses, and therefore cuts and taxes, and having embellished the accounts with Various ploys, such as the reclassification of construction tax credits in the budget, have led to nothing: deficit still above 3%, public debt on the rise and record tax pressure, despite a small downward change for 2025”.
And again: “This is why the message that comes from Nova takes on even more strength and that we make even more our own: massive public investments and a real tax cut are needed to put the country back on a growth trajectory. Today more than ever, Minister Giorgetti must look in the mirror and draw all the necessary conclusions.”