The Italian banking risk seems close to its final act. The MPS assembly, called for Thursday 29 October, should reject CEO Luigi Lovaglio’s counteroffensive and clear the way for Intesa Sanpaolo’s public takeover and exchange offer. Between December and January, Carlo Messina could thus conquer Monte, Mediobanca and 13.2% of Generali. But for investment bankers and analysts the vote will only close a phase of consolidation; from Banco Bpm to Trieste, other matches could soon open.
The relaunch of Intesa
In Siena, he explains MF-Milano Finanzathe numbers leave little margin for Lovaglio. The plan, centered on the takeover bids for Banco Bpm and Banca Generali and on an extraordinary dividend of 4 billion, encounters opposition from large shareholders. Also because Intesa relaunched by adding 25 cents in cash per share to the takeover bid, bringing its indicative value to 31.4 billion, and warned that the offer will fall if the assembly approves the essential defense steps. But the risk may not stop in Siena.
The game around Banco Bpm
The next match will be played around the Banco Bpm. According to financial sources, after the meeting of Montepaschi Crédit Agricole, the first shareholder with Piazza Meda at 29.3%, could accelerate the integration by transferring the Italian activities to Banco Bpm through a merger. Paris would thus provide a concrete industrial outlet for the climb that began in 2022, uniting networks and enhancing partnerships in consumer credit and bancassurance.
The scheme would also have a financial benefit for Agricole. By contributing its Italian activities in exchange for BPM shares, the French group would strengthen its stake without supporting a totalitarian offer. According to some simulations, Paris’ share would rise to 44-46% but exceeding 30%, which normally triggers the takeover obligation, could benefit from the exemption for the merger, through the so-called “whitewash”. Same mechanism that Unipol will benefit from in Bper after the transfer in 2028 of the branches taken over by Montepaschi. To make use of it, the favorable vote of the majority of independent shareholders would be sufficient.
But there’s a complication. In a deal of this type the minority shareholders would risk not benefiting from the control premium normally recognized in public offers. A question to which the CEO Giuseppe Castagna has also drawn attention several times, indicating the protection of shareholders as one of the essential requirements for a possible integration.
The dossier on Unicredit’s radar
The dossier would also be on Unicredit’s radar. An Agricole-Bpm merger could be accompanied by the transfer of a package of branches to Piazza Gae Aulenti, to respond to Antitrust requests in the areas of greatest overlap. Unicredit would thus obtain a strengthening in Lombardy, where it has long been seeking a leap in size as demonstrated by the failed takeover bid on Banco Bpm in 2025. A joint intervention had already been hypothesized in September, even if no confirmations have been received for now. What could Agricole get in exchange for the compendium? According to some interlocutors, the compensation could come from managed savings. The distribution contract between Unicredit and Amundi, the French-controlled giant, will expire in mid-2027. Since his arrival in Piazza Gae Aulenti, Orcel has reduced the presence of Amundi products in the network, favoring the internal Onemarkets platform and other managers, even at the cost of setting aside contractual penalties. The objective is to recover autonomy in management.
The agreement between Unicredit and Amundi
An agreement with Paris on Bpm could change the terms of the comparison. A long-term agreement, even ten years, between Unicredit and Amundi could return to the table. For the French it would mean safeguarding access to a large distribution network just on the eve of the contract expiring. For Orcel, however, it would mean reviewing a strategy pursued with determination in recent years. A possible negotiation ground, therefore, not an already agreed upon counterpart.
Furthermore, in financial consolidation Unicredit’s approach has always been concretely opportunistic. This is demonstrated by the stake built in Generali where today the bank holds 9.05%, according to the company’s latest update. With the Leone stock still close to historic highs, the share would now yield a rich capital gain but there are those who believe that Orcel’s plans are more ambitious.